Guide Metallographer:8.23Analysis of today's gold trend

　　今日消息面解读：


Monday(8month22day)goods in stockgoldfall drastically1730dollar/盎司整数关口，日内跌超1%。FXStreetanalystDhwani Mehta表示，金价可能进一步大跌至1700dollar/ounce.


　　Mehta指出，金价在1750dollar/盎司下方延续近期跌势，黄金空头期望金价进一步下跌。若跌破1730dollar/盎司支撑位，金价可能进一步大跌至1700dollar/ounce.


　　美联储鹰派提振美元、打压金价


　　上周三公布的美联储7月利率会议纪要暗示美联储不会暂停加息。这一措辞比市场预期的略显强硬，加之连续两周以来多位美联储官员发表鹰派言论，刺激了美元走强并再度收于108上方，从而令金价重挫。


　　美联储多位官员言论显示，美联储的聚焦点仍然放在通胀上，只是决策程序不再预设目标了，会根据经济形势在力度上作出微调。在通货膨胀率大幅下降之前，美联储可能不会考虑暂停加息。这充分显示了美联储决策者们将通胀率压低至2%水平的决心。


　　里士满联储主席巴尔金周五表示，央行决心将通胀率恢复到2%的目标，即使这意味着美国经济面临衰退的风险。美元兑主要竞争对手货币上升0.1%，创下一个月来的新高，这使得持有其他货币的买家购买黄金的成本更高。


　　“随着人们从风险较高的资产转向安全的美元，黄金可能仍面临压力，”Kotak Securities Ltd.大宗商品研究主管Ravindra RaoSay.


　　在美联储鹰派官员轮番轰炸下，上周美债收益率、美元指数大幅走高，黄金则连跌五日。


　　不过，对于市场而言，最为关注的是美联储主席鲍威尔将于北京时间8month26日晚上就美国经济前景在杰克逊霍尔年会上发表的讲话。预计鲍威尔的讲话可能就美国高昂的借贷成本和如何降低高通胀给出暗示。而真正让市场彻底了解美联储未来货币政策走势，仍需要等待9月议息会议出台。


　　Kitco每周黄金调查结果显示，华尔街目前看空本周金价。在参与调查的11位分析师中，55%的人预计金价会下跌，27%的人持中性看法，只有18%的人认金价会上涨。而普通投资者下周仍然看涨，在709名散户参与者中，46%的人预计价格会上涨。


Technical analysis of gold:


　　今日黄金早盘开盘于1746一线后小幅反弹到1749就一路阴跌，美盘前最低下跌至1730一线。今日下跌幅度稍微超出我们预期，白盘提前在1735-37一线多单在欧盘时段反弹到1738一线及时调仓出局。目前美盘再次走低，刷新白盘低点到1730下方，晚间还有进一步下跌可能，下方关键支撑在1720-22一线，这是晚间相对合适多单点位。


　　今天的行情和上周的行情非常类似，同样是开盘后基本无反弹一路走低，这种阴跌行情中一旦等反弹做空做空就很容易踏空。而在上周一我们就强调过阴跌行情中如果没有及时跟进空单，那么想要有比较合适的机会一定要等空头等到充分的释放。上周从1800depreciate to1772附近开启反弹，今日从1749附近下跌到前期关键支撑1720-22一线可能同样会开启反弹。


　　目前金价第一波下跌有在1727止跌的意思，空仓可以依托1727为低点在1731-32一线去接一次多单。综上所述，今日黄金操作思路上指南金师建议反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅，上方关注1740-1742USD resistance, follow below1710-1712Support.


　　8.23Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1740-1742Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1730-1720Nearby, break down and take a look1710frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1710-1712Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss5Points, target1720-1730Nearby, break down and take a look1735frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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