指南金师：黄金走势分析，金价日内大跌，低位支撑做多

　　今日消息面解读：


Monday(8month22day)The international gold price has dropped to7month28New low since the beginning of the day1729.13USD. Gold prices are constrained by a stronger US dollar and expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, despite9Third consecutive month75个基点加息可能性不大。本周焦点集中于周末举行的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会。美联储主席鲍威尔将在会上发表讲话。美元指数升至7month15New high in recent days108.500，使得gold对其他货币持有者来说更加昂贵。10年期美债收益率升至一个月以来最高水平，增加了非孳息资产黄金的持有成本。


　　根据美国商品futuresTrading Committee(CFTC)最新公布的数据，由于利率预期上升，投机者继续增持美元净多头寸。截至8month16日当周，美元净多头寸价值从前一周的129.7Billion US dollars climbed to133.7亿美元，为四周来首次增加。市场情绪围绕美联储加息预期波动，资金流动加剧了黄金多头痛苦。道明证券分析师解释说：“随着市场降息预期消退，贵金属投机做多吸引力应该会进一步枯竭。”美元恢复上行当然会给黄金市场带来压力，但它似乎更顺应同时出现的债券、股票和货币等资产抛售。无论何时，只要存在错误预期，例如美联储放慢货币政策收紧步伐，这样的期望就会立即蒸发。”


　　利率交易员目前预计，美联储9Third consecutive month75The possibility of raising interest rates by basis points is unlikely50%。一些美联储政策制定者此前发表评论，称由于通胀预期已见顶且经济衰退担忧加剧，美联储要放慢加息步伐，以保护经济免受借贷成本过快抬升影响。但圣路易斯联储主席布拉德倾向于再次加息75个基点，以更快地实现价格稳定。旧金山联储主席戴利也表示，现在宣布通胀胜利还为时过早，并表示加息50Basis points or75个基点都是合适的。本周焦点是将于周五(8month26day)The annual global central bank meeting held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech at the meeting. In terms of economic data, investors are paying attention to the data on durable goods orders in the United States, and it is expected that the data will be from the previous value2%lower0.5%。


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金上周延续下跌收阴，日线形成四连阴。自1802一带压以来，一路回吐至1755低位，从最终量的结构来看，连阴小K线慢性震荡下跌，边整理修正边下跌的走法，由于指标暂时凌乱发散，没走出极弱的单边，而是亚欧盘长时间震荡修正，美盘再摔低且收低。昨日的空间从1772摔跌至1755.基本上是昨日的日评预期的区间，随着日线的连阴回落，短线仍会伴随弱势下探。而美元短线多头正劲。继续令金价承压，4小时图正处于下跌浪形延伸当中，慢性的下跌，下行通道比较明显。维持在布林道中轨附近承压反复摔出新低。这种比较鲜明的空头结构，1小时图则继续维持在小台阶震荡下跌当中，随着反弹高点的下降。高点由1786-1772.反弹力度在减弱，形成弱台阶震荡下跌，在台阶下跌行情中，注意的是目前黄金的回落力度已经明显减弱，能量出现多次背离，随时出现超跌反弹的情况。从黄金的结构上看，1680-1808这里的反弹A浪已经是一个阶段了。自1808回落以来进入了同级别的回落调整模式，也可以说是大区间震荡调整修复。综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议以反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期关注1757-1762Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1735-1730Frontline support.


Operational strategy:1750-1752Air defense1760.50target1738-1730.落袋一半破位下看。


　　1725-1730多，各止损6USD, target1740-1745.落袋一半破位上看。


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