Guide Metallographer:8.18The pace of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve remains unchanged, and there is still room for adjustment in gold!

　　goldMessage interpretation:


The United States was announced overnight7Monthly retail sales rate data, resulting in0%, lower than expected0.1%And before value1%, showing unexpected stagnation in growth,6The monthly growth rate has been revised down, high inflation and continuous interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have forced people to be cautious in consumption, and the US economy continues to cool down. Corresponding to this is the UK7monthCPISurprisingly increased year-on-year10%Setting another record for the highest growth rate, the energy crisis has driven up inflation in Europe, causing consumers to pay for most of their savings, thereby curbing consumer spending in other areas and further stifling economic growth.


In the early morning, the Federal Reserve also announced7The monthly meeting minutes indicate that interest rates will continue to be raised to control inflation, but unlike in the past, it is the first time that excessive tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve may pose risks. Faced with high inflation2%Our goal is still far away,9There may also be an unconventional significant interest rate hike in the month, as7Numerous Federal Reserve officials collectively support a radical interest rate hike in the month. In addition, although there are few signs of easing inflation due to the decline in commodity prices, commodities will also rise quickly. In order to effectively control inflation, interest rates may continue to rise. Compared to high inflation, there is still significant room for monetary interest rates to increase. After the release of the radical interest rate hike concept, dove talk was released, stating that excessive and frequent interest rate hikes may cause greater economic costs. It is reiterated that future reference data should be used to determine the pace of interest rate hikes. However, the capital market is more accepting of the dove like comments that first examined risks. After the release of the minutes in the early morning, the impact of gold and silver on the decline narrowed.


This morning, there is also a speech by George, Chairman of the Kansas Fed and Chairman of the Minneapolis Fed, in the Q&A session. We can closely monitor whether there is a mention of the Fed's attitude towards future monetary policy. If hawkish sentiment persists, it will be bearish for gold and silver; On the contrary, it may affect the short-term decline of gold and silver.


Today's Focus:


　　09:30Australia7Unemployment rate after quarterly adjustment


　　14:00Switzerland7Monthly trade account


　　17:00eurozone7monthCPIAnnual rate final value and monthly rate


　　20:30From the United States to8month13Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


　　20:30U.S.A8Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index


　　22:00U.S.A7Annualized total monthly housing sales


　　22:00U.S.A7Monthly leading indicator monthly rate of the Chamber of Commerce


The next day01:20Federal Reserve George delivers a speech on the outlook for the US economy


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold continued its decline and closed lower yesterday, with its highest rebound at1782.30Under pressure on the first line, hold on to the neck line of the low mouth, and the pressure will fall again to break through the low, breaking through1765to1759.80At a low level, the daily line touched the middle track of Bollinger Road and closed nearby. Today we still need to test the gains and losses of the medium track, and the current pace of the daily line is slightly slow and stagnant. Accompanied by a three consecutive negative pullback, it broke the previous weak upward pattern, but the space for pullback seems not too large, and it will be horizontal consolidation for a longer time.


　　4Houtu walked out of the head and shoulder top falling shape, falling below1783Continuously descending after the neckline. At present, a small-scale two wave decline has also been constructed, relying on1807Make one wave high point, while the small period two wave high points are1786.70.This is also the reason why we have been bearish below this level this week, as the critical point has not recovered and the short-term trend remains bearish. The hour chart shows a step like oscillation decline, but the pace is relatively slow. The step decline is characterized by a chronic oscillation. After sorting out the hour chart at the beginning of the week, the moving average indicator has turned downward, and the short-term thinking for the day relies on it1783Make a defensive rebound and bear short first, breaking the low point in the hourly chart1770-1772Forming resistance, today's upward pressure focuses on yesterday's US market opening and closing1773-1772Nearby, rely on this position to suppress the main air and continue to see the fall. The target position below is still focused on breaking the bottom, and the recent divide between the strength and weakness of the long air1780At the checkpoint, before the daily level closes at this position, any rebound is a short selling opportunity. It is important to be cautious when placing multiple orders. In summary, today's gold operation guidelines suggest that the rebound should be mainly high altitude, with a pullback as a supplement. Pay attention to the above1770-1773USD resistance, follow below1754-1750Support.


　　8.18Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1770-1773Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1760-1755Nearby, break down and take a look1750frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1752-1754Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1760-1765Nearby, break down and take a look1770frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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