Guide Metallographer:8.18今日黄金走势分析，美联储担心过度加息风险

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　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　美联储公布的7月会议纪要显示，部分委员认为当前紧缩的货币政策已经超过市场实际需求。因此，加息的步伐将在某个时候放缓。美联储还表示，目前并没有证据表明通胀压力在减弱，依然需要相当长时间才能解决问题。


　　本次公布的美联储会议纪要释放出一个重要信号，即美联储有意放松此前高压的货币政策。持续高压的货币政策如一把双刃剑，一方面有利于压制美国国内过高的通货膨胀，一方面却也在破坏着美国的实体经济。如果美联储继续维持高压态势，势必导致美国经济衰退。本次释放的信号是对市场激进预期的一个修正。个人认为是为下月联储利率决议做铺垫，即下月加息50个基点甚至更低。如果美联储调整此前激进的政策，金银市场将在美联储相对没那么紧的紧缩政策下展开反弹，直至通货膨胀真正回落。


　　最新公布数据显示，美国7Monthly retail sales rate recorded0%Below the previous value1%，略微也低于市场预期。该项数据创近2个月新低。尽管7月零售数据与市场预期相近，但也突显出极大的问题。持续高涨的通胀问题不断侵蚀工人的收入，这使得许多群众通过透支未来或者消耗储蓄来维持生计。尽管上周的通胀数据有所回落，但并未能让生活回到正常水平。如果通胀问题持续，将会对未来几个月消费者的生活造成持续性的压力。


Today's Focus:


　　09:30Australia7Unemployment rate after quarterly adjustment


　　14:00Switzerland7Monthly trade account


　　17:00eurozone7monthCPIAnnual rate final value and monthly rate


　　20:30From the United States to8month13Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


　　20:30U.S.A8Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index


　　22:00U.S.A7Annualized total monthly housing sales


　　22:00U.S.A7Monthly leading indicator monthly rate of the Chamber of Commerce


The next day01:20Federal Reserve George delivers a speech on the outlook for the US economy


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold continued its decline and closed lower yesterday, with its highest rebound at1782.30Under pressure on the first line, hold on to the neck line of the low mouth, and the pressure will fall again to break through the low, breaking through1765to1759.80At a low level, the daily line touched the middle track of Bollinger Road and closed nearby. Today we still need to test the gains and losses of the medium track, and the current pace of the daily line is slightly slow and stagnant. Accompanied by a three consecutive negative pullback, it broke the previous weak upward pattern, but the space for pullback seems not too large, and it will be horizontal consolidation for a longer time.


　　4Houtu walked out of the head and shoulder top falling shape, falling below1783Continuously descending after the neckline. At present, a small-scale two wave decline has also been constructed, relying on1807Make one wave high point, while the small period two wave high points are1786.70.This is also the reason why we have been bearish below this level this week, as the critical point has not recovered and the short-term trend remains bearish. The hour chart shows a step like oscillation decline, but the pace is relatively slow. The step decline is characterized by a chronic oscillation. After sorting out the hour chart at the beginning of the week, the moving average indicator has turned downward, and the short-term thinking for the day relies on it1783Make a defensive rebound and bear short first, breaking the low point in the hourly chart1770-1772Forming resistance, today's upward pressure focuses on yesterday's US market opening and closing1773-1772Nearby, rely on this position to suppress the main air and continue to see the fall. The target position below is still focused on breaking the bottom, and the recent divide between the strength and weakness of the long air1780At the checkpoint, before the daily level closes at this position, any rebound is a short selling opportunity. It is important to be cautious when placing multiple orders. In summary, today's gold operation guidelines suggest that the rebound should be mainly high altitude, with a pullback as a supplement. Pay attention to the above1770-1773USD resistance, follow below1754-1750Support.


　　8.18Reference for Golden Operation Strategy:


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1770-1773Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1760-1755Nearby, break down and take a look1750frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1752-1754Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss6Points, target1760-1765Nearby, break down and take a look1770frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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