Guide Metallographer:8.16黄金价格回落调整，保持震荡偏空思路

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　高盛称，美联储抑制通胀失控、同时防止经济陷入严重衰退的道路仍未关闭，但越来越窄。


　　在美联储寻求继续加息之际，美国经济却充斥着好坏参半的信号：就业数据快速增长，而住房数据急剧下降；汽油价格下跌，而住房和食品成本飙升；消费者信心低迷，而支出数据稳定。


　　在这一切之中，美联储正试图取得平衡，要放慢速度但又不能太过缓慢。在这一点上，高盛的经济学家们认为，已经有了明显的胜利，也有一些损失，未来的前景将构成重大挑战。


　　高盛经济学家David Mericle在周日的一份客户报告中称：“我们的总体结论是，有一条可行但困难的软着陆之路，尽管美联储无法控制的一些因素可能会使这条路变得容易或复杂，并提高或降低成功的几率。”


　　通胀最大驱动因素之一就是过度增长，这造成了供需之间的失衡。美联储正在利用加息来抑制需求，以便供应赶上来，而根据纽约联储指数衡量，供应链压力处于2021year1The lowest level since the beginning of the month.


　　所以在这一点上，Mericle说，美联储的努力“进展顺利”。他表示，自3月以来加息总计2.25个百分点，在增长特别是需求方面“实现了迫切需要的减速”。


　　事实上，高盛预计未来四个季度的GDPThe growth rate is only1%，而此前连续下滑1.6%and0.9%。尽管多数经济学家预计，美国国家经济研究局NBER不会宣布美国经济在今年上半年陷入衰退，但经济增长缓慢的道路让美联储更难实现平衡。


　　Mericle也指出，美联储的举措帮助缩小了劳动力市场的供需缺口，目前每一个劳动力仍有近两个职位空缺。他写道，这种努力“还有很长的路要走”。


　　然而，最大的问题仍然是顽固的高通胀。7monthCPI持平，但仍较上年同期上涨8.5%。工资增长强劲，平均时薪较上年同期增长5.2%。因此，美联储阻止物价上涨导致薪资上涨和通胀持续的努力，迄今为止没有显示出令人信服的进展。M


　　他补充称：“坏消息是，高通胀是普遍的，衡量潜在趋势的指标被提升，企业通胀预期和定价意愿仍处于高位。”


　　对抗通胀可能需要比市场当前预期更高的加息幅度。高盛的预测是，美联储将在今年年底前将基准利率再提高一个百分点，但Mericle承认，由于“近期金融状况的缓和，招聘的强劲步伐，以及工资增长和通胀的粘性迹象”，存在“上行风险”。


　　事实上，纽约联邦储备银行前行长William Dudley周一表示，他认为市场低估了未来加息的路径，从而低估了经济硬着陆或衰退的风险。他表示：“市场误解了美联储的意图，我认为，美联储加息的时间将超出市场参与者目前的理解。”


　　在他看来，美联储将继续加息，直到确定通胀回到2%的目标。即使以最慷慨的通胀衡量，即美联储所遵循的核心PCE价格指数，通胀率仍为4.8%。他补充说：“劳动力市场比美联储希望的要紧张得多。工资通胀率太高，与2%的通胀率不相符。”


　　他预计，利率将继续上升，直到就业形势转变到足以使失业率“远高于4%”，而当前的水平是3.5%。他说：“只要失业率上升0.5个百分点或更多，结果就是全面衰退。”


　　失业与衰退之间的关系被称为“萨姆法则”(Sahm Rule)，该法则指出，当三个月的平均失业率比过去12个月的最低水平高出0.5个百分点时，衰退就会发生。


　　根据萨姆规则，这只需要4%的失业率。在制定利率的FOMC成员最近的经济预测中，他们认为失业率要到2024年才会突破这一水平。


　　综合以上信息可以看到，美联储想不导致经济衰退的情况下战胜通胀，但是高盛认为“可行但很困难”，这条路变得越来越窄。美国经济衰退将令市场避险情绪升温，利好黄金，投资者需对此保持关注。


Technical analysis of gold:


How does gold fluctuate? It hasn't exceeded the limit in the past week1798reach1805Short selling in the region. Yesterday, gold fluctuated and fell all the way since the opening, indicating that the bearish trend is still evident, which means1800Limited upside space, ready to decline at any time30reach40The US dollar range is very easy. Last week, we attacked the station in the middle of the night1800Regional, but there was no correlation with Monday's rise, indicating a clear bullish trend, with consecutive breakdowns yesterday5Rihe10The daily moving average indicates a decline in upward momentum and downward pressure1788reach1795Area.


Looking back at the market last week, although gold surged, most of the time it was1798reach1805区域压力下，冲高回落走势，指南金师始终坚持高空昨日又是近30The trend of the US dollar adjustment is familiar to the market. Recently, there has been a surge in prices, with raids in the early hours of the night. The next day, warm water is turned on to cook frogs, and the surge has dropped,1787Fall to1753Area, followed by1794Fall to1765Area, rear1808Fall to1783Regions, all close30The US dollar fell and adjusted, so yesterday1802reach1772Also30USD range. Only a break1765Only then can we open up the downward space.


Yesterday was international againETFThe main force is reducing its holdings, looking at what international giants are doing in the gold rebound7After the monthly interest rate hike rebounded, the main force has been to reduce holdings every time it rebounded, only once7month29Daily breakthrough1750Increase your holdings a bit, but then continue to decrease your holdings, which indicates that2070Falling continuously for six months to1680near400After the US dollar range, it is not optimistic about the future upward trend to push up and reduce holdings. It is expected that there will be lower positions to buy at the bottom and increase holdings in the future. We must take a warning from this high selling and low buying, and a slight amplification of the bearish situation can lead to a flash crash.


Currently, gold does not have a bullish market foundation, and both daily and monthly trading lines are bearish control. Simple moving averages are temporarily staggered without long positions, and even key pressure positions have not broken. Why is a bull market? Moreover, even if the bull market rises and rebounds in the first wave120The US dollar range also requires a second round of retesting to solidify the bottom support, so that we can go further in the later stage and only reach those who are destined. That's all I've said to tell you at this moment1800Don't chase too much on the market, there's not much room for growth, and there's always room for decline80reach100US dollars, every time we change the price, we always add a space to drive in. The flight attendant drives until nothing grows. If you still hesitate, we can only haha! Last week, I gave you expectations.


The time-sharing chart has actually deviated from the short selling signal,1790reach1798Continuous deviation in the region indicates that the1685I have basically completed the five steps of doing long signals all the way, and yesterday, I went down to the ground and broke the level for a day. I sorted it out horizontally for a week1784Region, so the top to bottom transition here is still a short space region, with concentrated pressure during time sharing1788reach1795Region, which means that as long as1795The consolidation of the lower horizontal market is all due to bearish control of the rebound market, with a target of two dips and one dip1765reach1750Since the market is adjusting under critical pressure, it's good for you to make a rebound and short the trend.


Gold rebound1784-88One line empty, loss release1793, Objective1770-65。


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