Guide Metallographer:8.16今日黄金走势分析，金价冲高无果大幅走低

Market Review:


InternationalgoldMonday(8month15day)Significantly lower, opening price1801.47dollar/Ounces, highest price1802.22dollar/Ounces, lowest price1772.80dollar/Ounces, closing price1780.60dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Monday8Recorded by the New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the month-31.3, lower than market expectations5.5, previous value is11.1.


　　评论称，该地区指数来说是个大惊喜。美联储希望经济增长放缓，希望以此减缓通货膨胀，但不希望经济大幅下滑。这是自新冠肺炎疫情爆发以来的最低值。该数据与密歇根州的调查形成了鲜明对比，密歇根州的调查显示，该数字略有上升。两种调查都是关于当前的经济观点，一种是消费者观点，另一种企业观点。


The United States announced on Monday8monthNAHBReal estate market index recorded49, lower than market expectations55, previous value is55.


　　评论称，8月份建筑商信心连续第八个月下降，因为利率上升、供应链问题持续存在以及高房价继续加剧住房负担能力面临的挑战。另一个迹象表明，不断下滑的房地产市场未能触底，根据今天发布的数据，美国8monthNAHB房产市场指数下降6Point to49This is from2020year5月以来该指数首次跌破关键的盈亏平衡指标50。建筑成本持续增长和高抵押贷款利率继续削弱市场对独栋房屋建筑商的信心。NAHBchairmanJerry Konter表示，一个令人不安的迹象表明，由于住房成本上升，消费者现在正在观望，我们的建筑商调查显示8月的买家流量数据为32，这是除了疫情首次爆发的2020年春季外、自2014year4月以来的最低水平。美联储收紧货币政策和持续上涨的建筑成本导致了房地产市场的衰退。2022年独栋房屋的总开工量势将出现下降，这将是2011年以来的首次下降。然而，随着通胀接近峰值的迹象越来越多、长期利率已有所稳定，这将在未来几个月为市场的需求端提供一些稳定。


　　分析称，美联储官员发出的强烈信息表明，在出现强有力证据显示通胀压力正在减弱之前，美联储不太可能转向更加温和的政策立场。多头不愿承担新的大额长期风险敞口，价格持续上涨缺乏必要支撑。事实上，当利率高于市场预期的可能性一旦出现，黄金涨势似乎就会逆转。


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustPosition decrease compared to the previous day2.03Tons, current position is993.94Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve9Monthly interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is61.5%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is38.5%； reach11Monthly cumulative interest rate increase75The probability of a basis point is26.5%Accumulated interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is51.6%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is21.9%。


Today's Focus:


　　09:30澳洲联储公布货币政策会议纪要


　　14:00britain6Three months in a monthILOunemployment rate


　　14:00britain7Monthly unemployment rate


　　14:00britain7Number of applicants for monthly unemployment benefits


　　17:00Germany8monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index


　　17:00eurozone8monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index


　　17:00eurozone6Monthly adjusted trade account


　　20:30Canada7monthCPIMonthly rate


　　20:30U.S.A7Annualized total monthly construction of new houses


　　20:30U.S.A7Total monthly construction permits


　　21:15U.S.A7Monthly industrial output rate


Technical analysis of gold:


How does gold fluctuate? It hasn't exceeded the limit in the past week1798reach1805Short selling in the region. Yesterday, gold fluctuated and fell all the way since the opening, indicating that the bearish trend is still evident, which means1800Limited upside space, ready to decline at any time30reach40The US dollar range is very easy. Last week, we attacked the station in the middle of the night1800Regional, but there was no correlation with Monday's rise, indicating a clear bullish trend, with consecutive breakdowns yesterday5Rihe10The daily moving average indicates a decline in upward momentum and downward pressure1788reach1795Area.


Looking back at the market last week, although gold surged, most of the time it was1798reach1805区域压力下，冲高回落走势，指南金师始终坚持高空昨日又是近30The trend of the US dollar adjustment is familiar to the market. Recently, there has been a surge in prices, with raids in the early hours of the night. The next day, warm water is turned on to cook frogs, and the surge has dropped,1787Fall to1753Area, followed by1794Fall to1765Area, rear1808Fall to1783Regions, all close30The US dollar fell and adjusted, so yesterday1802reach1772Also30USD range. Only a break1765Only then can we open up the downward space.


Yesterday was international againETFThe main force is reducing its holdings, looking at what international giants are doing in the gold rebound7After the monthly interest rate hike rebounded, the main force has been to reduce holdings every time it rebounded, only once7month29Daily breakthrough1750Increase your holdings a bit, but then continue to decrease your holdings, which indicates that2070Falling continuously for six months to1680near400After the US dollar range, it is not optimistic about the future upward trend to push up and reduce holdings. It is expected that there will be lower positions to buy at the bottom and increase holdings in the future. We must take a warning from this high selling and low buying, and a slight amplification of the bearish situation can lead to a flash crash.


Currently, gold does not have a bullish market foundation, and both daily and monthly trading lines are bearish control. Simple moving averages are temporarily staggered without long positions, and even key pressure positions have not broken. Why is a bull market? Moreover, even if the bull market rises and rebounds in the first wave120The US dollar range also requires a second round of retesting to solidify the bottom support, so that we can go further in the later stage and only reach those who are destined. That's all I've said to tell you at this moment1800Don't chase too much on the market, there's not much room for growth, and there's always room for decline80reach100US dollars, every time we change the price, we always add a space to drive in. The flight attendant drives until nothing grows. If you still hesitate, we can only haha! Last week, I gave you expectations.


The time-sharing chart has actually deviated from the short selling signal,1790reach1798Continuous deviation in the region indicates that the1685I have basically completed the five steps of doing long signals all the way, and yesterday, I went down to the ground and broke the level for a day. I sorted it out horizontally for a week1784Region, so the top to bottom transition here is still a short space region, with concentrated pressure during time sharing1788reach1795Region, which means that as long as1795The consolidation of the lower horizontal market is all due to bearish control of the rebound market, with a target of two dips and one dip1765reach1750Since the market is adjusting under critical pressure, it's good for you to make a rebound and short the trend.


Gold rebound1784-88One line empty, loss release1793, Objective1770-65。


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