Guide Metallographer:8.15Today's gold trend analysis, considering rebound testing resistance to short selling

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Monday(8month15day)Spot gold plummeted over1.5%Set a new low in a week1772.82dollar/ounce,1800The resistance against the US dollar level has strengthened. Federal Reserve policymakers continue to support the US dollar with hawkish statements targeting the prospects of fighting inflation and raising interest rates. The wording of Federal Reserve officials indicates that the fight against inflation will be more durable and will not hesitate to tolerate a moderate economic recession. United States7Monthly consumer and producer prices have cooled, and import prices have fallen for the first time in seven months. The overall inflation of the US economy seems to have peaked, which has sparked the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve to loosen expectations. The gold price is far away from the record set last week7month5New high in recent days1807.72dollar/Ounces. But Richmond Fed Chairman Barkin last Friday(8month12day)I hope to see inflation under control for a period of time. Prior to that, I believe we will raise interest rates even if we suppress economic growth. "Barkin said he hopes to see inflation remain stable until the Federal Reserve stops raising interest rates2%Within a certain period of time near the target.


Balkin said he hopes to see the "real" borrowing costs - minus inflation and inflation expectations - greater than zero. I think we are on the edge of pushing real interest rates towards a positive region, we need to maintain them in that region, and we need to follow some interest rate path expectations. Over the past year, the continuous surge in prices has caught Federal Reserve officials off guard. even if7There are preliminary signs that inflation may have peaked in the month, but7Consumer prices still surged year-on-year in the month8.5%Core inflation is also much higher than2%The goal of. Although(7month)Inflation has decreased, but it is still too early for the Federal Reserve to release its brakes He maintains a bullish view of the US dollar.


At the Federal Reserve9Some inflation and employment data will also be released before the monthly meeting. Balkin emphasized that so far, the economy has withstood the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike well, but as monetary policy tightens, the unemployment rate may rise. The proportion of job vacancies to unemployed workers in the United States remains near record high2than1The imbalanced state of,7Month increase528000The combination of non agricultural job positions and strong wage growth indicates that enterprises are still competing to meet demand. Policy makers provide quantitative and qualitative analysis to explain how they can suppress "excessive" demand without significantly raising the unemployment rate. There is disagreement on the extent to which the unemployment rate may need to rise in order to control inflation. However, Federal Reserve officials largely agree that currently3.5%The unemployment rate is already below the level required to ensure full employment. The Federal Reserve is indeed engaged in an emotional war, trying to convince the market that the ammunition prepared by the Federal Reserve to tighten policy is far from exhausted(Whether it is true or not)The Federal Reserve can contain40The unprecedented high inflation in recent years has led to a premature release of market loosening expectations, resulting in a recent setback in gold prices1800The Important Level of the US Dollar


Today's Focus:


　　20:30Canada6Monthly wholesale sales rate


　　20:30U.S.A8New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the Month


　　22:00U.S.A8monthNAHBReal Estate Market Index


　　22:50Federal Reserve Governor Waller delivers a speech at the meeting


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold closed positive again last week, with a strong rebound in four consecutive positive sessions on the weekly chart. With the increase of space, the previous downward trend has partially reversed in the short term. The weekly line forms a stop and rebound, at the neckline1680The counterattack after stabilizing also showed a trend of consolidation and upward trend last week, with consolidation and correction in the upward trend. Belongs to a stronger correction technique. The rhythm of the daily structure is slightly slow, combined with the slow rise of the double yin, one yang or one yin, two yang style oscillation, and the upward trend while accumulating momentum. Last Friday1783After frontline defense, the market closed again at1800.Although the daily line did not form a complete unilateral long position in the process of pulling the moving average index to turn, during the consolidation process, the daily line closed generally last Friday, which is not conducive to a pullback, and is still relatively strong. It is currently due to the top deviation of the daily line, and it is not recommended to pursue a higher position;


　　4The hourly chart is in an upward wave shape, with the accumulation of momentum. As the low point of the back test rises, a clear small step oscillation rises. This step rise, the secondary low point is the short-term long critical point, and it is not advisable to be overly bearish before falling. The fall is only treated as a partial correction, as shown in the attached figureMACDThe indicator deviates from the digestion correction at the top, and after correction0Near the axis, the golden cross is once again upward, and the strong market has replaced a pullback with a horizontal consolidation correction, while the neckline of the hour chart is supported by1783.After multiple attempts, they still haven't fallen behind. From the perspective of weekly trading volume, the rebound structure of bulls remains the same, but there has been a deviation in the daily line, with bulls showing a slight shortage and not suitable for catching up in the short term. Today, in the early trading session, the current price remains aggressive as before1800-1805Short selling, stop loss1811, Objective1790-1780In short term light positions, in summary, today's gold operation guidelines suggest a rebound in high altitude, supplemented by a pullback in long positions, with the top following1795-1800USD resistance, follow below1770-1775Support.


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1800-1802Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1785-1790Nearby, break down and take a look1780frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1770-1775Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss5Points, target1790-1795Nearby, break down and take a look1800frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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