Dingsheng Jinshi:8.15Analysis of the Gold and Crude Oil Market, Layout of Gold and Oil in the Future after High Opening and Low Moving...

8.15goldAnalysis of the latest market trend:


　　8month15In the Asian market on Monday, the international gold trend fluctuated and fell, with gold prices opening early in the morning1802The US dollar, which is also the highest price in the day, has dropped to1772The US dollar has hit its lowest point in the past week and is currently trading at1779Around the US dollar.


Last week, the rise of gold was hindered, and although it still maintained an upward exploratory trend, the price of gold has clearly shifted from an upward trend to a horizontal trend. Dingsheng Jinshi believes that although the geopolitical situation remains tense, it stimulates safe haven buying and the United States7monthCPIData shows a slowdown in inflation growth, reducing the Federal Reserve's9Monthly interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point provides support for gold, but Federal Reserve officials made consecutive hawkish speeches last week, limiting the rise of gold, especially as it enters this week, when the Federal Reserve will announce7In the minutes of the monthly policy meeting, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates significantly, which will further limit gold prices.


In terms of news, the geopolitical situation remains tense, providing safe haven support for gold. Federal Reserve officials delivered consecutive hawkish speeches last week. Last Friday, Balkin expressed his hope to further raise interest rates to bring inflation under control; United States7monthCPIThe data shows that the growth rate of inflation has slowed down,PPIThe data also unexpectedly decreased, indicating that US inflation may be7Peak in Month, Stimulating US Stock Market S&P500The index and Nasdaq index rose for the fourth week in a row, but the above news is unfavorable for gold prices.


Technically, at the weekly level,5The daily moving average dead cross turns upwards,KDJThe Golden Fork is slowing down and approaching the overbought area,MACDDead fork below the zero axis,DIFFThe line starts to turn down again,RSIThe indicator forms a dead cross, indicating a demand for a pullback in gold prices; Daily level, gold rose and fell last WednesdayKThe shooting star was recorded on the line, and the initial signal of reaching its peak appeared. On Thursday, the gold price broke the upward trend line, and the gold shifted from an upward trend to a horizontal trend. Gold continued to fall during the day5Daily moving average and10Daily moving average,5The daily moving average golden cross begins to turn downwards,MACDThe golden fork crosses the zero axis, butDIFFThe line starts to turn downwards,KDJDead cross down in the overbought area,RSIThe indicators are beginning to form a dead cross, indicating a demand for a pullback in gold prices.


Overall, despite geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve's7Monthly interest rate increase75The decrease in the probability of one basis point provides support for gold prices, but due to the continuous hawkish speeches made by Federal Reserve officials, policymakers continue to be vigilant about inflation, which limits the rise of gold. As gold shows initial signs of peaking, the price shifts from an upward trend to a horizontal trend, and as the price falls, the short-term downside risk begins to increase. In terms of operation, Dingsheng Jinshi suggests maintaining a fluctuating and empty mentality, with support and attention from below1770USD,1752USD, upper pressure attention1782USD,1790USD.


　　crude oilMarket trend analysis;


Monday(8month15day)International oil prices fell for the second consecutive trading day as Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, stated its readiness to increase production. It is in the interests of both countries to retain the prospect of resuming the nuclear agreement. Nasser, CEO of Saudi state-owned oil company Aramco, last Sunday(8month14day)According to reporters, if requested by the Saudi government, Aramco is ready to increase crude oil production to120010000 barrels/The upper limit of the day. We have confidence in increasing production when the government or the Ministry of Energy have a need to increase production. Analysts say that regardless of whether Iran or the United States accepts the EU's proposal2015The proposal for the resumption of the nuclear agreement is unlikely to be announced as invalid by both parties, as maintaining the agreement is in the interests of both parties. For the United States, there is no obvious or simple way to control Iran's nuclear program beyond an agreement. After the resumption of the nuclear agreement, Iran's oil export sanctions will be lifted, and Iran can gain more economic benefits. The global market supply tension caused by Russia's sanctions will also be alleviated. Overall, geopolitical tensions continue to support oil prices, but supply disruptions in the US Gulf of Mexico region will ease, and the epidemic will further spread globally. Concerns about demand prospects are rising, and oil prices may be short-term or bearish.


Crude oil hit a high and fell last Friday, but ended lower. Repeated testing at the beginning of the week87.30After stabilizing on the first line, there was a wave of rebound, reaching the highest point95.0Nearby. The daily line touched the upper track of the downward channel and fell back under pressure at the upper track of the channel last Friday, returning to91.0Zone, closing at92.60Below, as the daily line lowers and falls, the short-term line returns to breaking high92.60The lower part weakens, and the daily line will go back for testing again this week87.0Indications. Of course, can we go further down to open up space and break through87.0That's the key to continuity.4The hour chart fell low from the upper track and fell back to the vicinity of the middle track. Last Friday, it closed low on the middle track and fell below the middle track. At the beginning of this week, it continued to decline, with the first target point at the lower track, which was the previous low point, and will also approach again87.50-87.0Test the defense of low point support.1The small level double low rebound in the previous form of Houtu, relying on87.0-87.50Form a double low and break through the neckline92.60Going out of a strong rebound, but recovering below the neckline in the late trading, indicating that the short-term rebound is basically combined and may return to a downward trend this week. Overall, in terms of crude oil's short-term operation strategy today, Dingsheng Jinshi suggests focusing on the short-term above93.0-94.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below86.5-85.5Frontline support.


Serve as an analyst and commentator for well-known financial channels such as "Golden Net" and "Globalforeign exchange》Professional contributors to several well-known financial forums such as "Huitong Net" and "Zhongjin Net", specializing in short, medium, and long term operations of gold, crude oil, and silver. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market. Suggestions are for reference only; This article is original by Dingsheng Jinshi, who carefully writes every analysis and conveys valuable investment concepts. If there is any similarity, it is purely plagiarism. Readers should be discerning and respect originality!