Guide Metallographer:8.15Today's Gold Trend Analysis, US Dollar Strengthening, Gold Falling Below1780

　　goldMessage interpretation:


If the price of gold cannot be closed at per ounce1820Near the US dollar, there is no possibility of a significant increase in gold prices this summer, and some analysts have even warned that gold prices may fall back to every ounce1700USD.


At the close of last Friday, gold prices rose for the fourth consecutive week, with an increase of1.5%，12monthComexgoldfuturesLatest report per ounce1818.10USD.


Many analysts expect gold prices to rise significantly after inflation slows down. Last week's announcementCPIThe data is lower than expected,7The annual inflation rate for the month is8.5%, and6Month is9.1%. But gold cannot profit from this expected direct return.


Global Head of Commodity Strategy at Dao Ming SecuritiesBart MelekRepresent:“CPIThe data is lower than many people's expectations, mainly driven by the decline in energy prices


　　MelekAgree with the views of last week's Fed spokesperson, who opposed the Fed's shift from aggressive rate hikes. He said, "Inflation remains a major issue, and it is likely that the inflation rate will continue to exceed the preferences of the Federal Reserve


The problem is that energy prices may continue to decline in the short term, but once the weather turns cold, inflationary pressure may return.


He pointed out that:“8After the month, energy will no longer be a source of anti inflationary pressure. As winter approaches, demand increases. The price drop we see in the energy sector may subside. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to be like many people in2023As expected at the beginning of the year, confidently tilt the policy towards low interest rates


　　MelekWarning that for gold, this means that there is still a possibility of gold prices falling back to every ounce1700Significant risks to the US dollar. He said, "According to Federal Reserve commentators, the Fed believes that inflation is a problem and that a slowdown in the economy will not prevent them from continuing to take action


　　Blue Line FuturesChief Market StrategistPhillip StreibleIn addition, there has been a risky upward trend in the stock market, causing funds to flow out of gold. He said:"The trend of the US stock market has once again triggeredFOMOBuying, including emoticons


And investors who have benefited from precious metals during the recent rally may be considering investing these returns into other asset classes with strong gains, such as momentum stocks.


　　StreibleIt is pointed out that the gold price cannot exceed per ounce1850After the US dollar, he is cautious about this week.


He said, "Earlier last week, we saw the US dollar falling and yields falling, but gold did not break through. The gold price should be1850USD, this is the fair value of gold. In fact, we haven't broken through the upward trend and regained momentum, which makes me a bit cautious


　　StreibleAdd that the gold price needs to close at1825The US dollar can reignite a new bullish trend. He pointed out that:Besides, from a technical perspective, the chart looks a bit tired


　　MelekThe first support position is50Daily moving average1783Near the US dollar, resistance level is at per ounce1830USD. He added that if1783The dollar won't hold, so1772The US dollar will come into play.


Today's Focus:


　　20:30Canada6Monthly wholesale sales rate


　　20:30U.S.A8New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the Month


　　22:00U.S.A8monthNAHBReal Estate Market Index


　　22:50Federal Reserve Governor Waller delivers a speech at the meeting


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold closed positive again last week, with a strong rebound in four consecutive positive sessions on the weekly chart. With the increase of space, the previous downward trend has partially reversed in the short term. The weekly line forms a stop and rebound, at the neckline1680The counterattack after stabilizing also showed a trend of consolidation and upward trend last week, with consolidation and correction in the upward trend. Belongs to a stronger correction technique. The rhythm of the daily structure is slightly slow, combined with the slow rise of the double yin, one yang or one yin, two yang style oscillation, and the upward trend while accumulating momentum. Last Friday1783After frontline defense, the market closed again at1800.Although the daily line did not form a complete unilateral long position in the process of pulling the moving average index to turn, during the consolidation process, the daily line closed generally last Friday, which is not conducive to a pullback, and is still relatively strong. It is currently due to the top deviation of the daily line, and it is not recommended to pursue a higher position;


　　4The hourly chart is in an upward wave shape, with the accumulation of momentum. As the low point of the back test rises, a clear small step oscillation rises. This step rise, the secondary low point is the short-term long critical point, and it is not advisable to be overly bearish before falling. The fall is only treated as a partial correction, as shown in the attached figureMACDThe indicator deviates from the digestion correction at the top, and after correction0Near the axis, the golden cross is once again upward, and the strong market has replaced a pullback with a horizontal consolidation correction, while the neckline of the hour chart is supported by1783.After multiple attempts, they still haven't fallen behind. From the perspective of weekly trading volume, the rebound structure of bulls remains the same, but there has been a deviation in the daily line, with bulls showing a slight shortage and not suitable for catching up in the short term. Today, in the early trading session, the current price remains aggressive as before1800-1805Short selling, stop loss1811, Objective1790-1780In short term light positions, in summary, today's gold operation guidelines suggest a rebound in high altitude, supplemented by a pullback in long positions, with the top following1795-1800USD resistance, follow below1770-1775Support.


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1800-1802Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1785-1790Nearby, break down and take a look1780frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1770-1775Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss5Points, target1790-1795Nearby, break down and take a look1800frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Free benefits within the technical guidance group:The market is constantly changing every day,We have a strong analysis team, and every order we make is carefully considered and judged,To ensure that every order can be profitable and eliminated!Two to three orders per day do not require overnight prosperity,Just ask for the safety of falling into the bag!Profit is very high,I scored nine points alone,One point depends on luck,Eight points rely on strength!One or two days is luck,What about that week?Two weeks?Whether it is within the circle or in a group strategy,Or major financial websites,Team teachers are all current price lists!Daily analysis team technical guidance group, real-time announcement of daily market trends and push notifications,Real time current price list: Each entry is reasonable, evidence-based, publicly available, and can be accessed for free for group experience and inspection!


　　(Add Guide Gold Master（WX:zns83721 QQ:3096653915）After,Free application for direct group experience. Daily current price3-5single)I solemnly promise to add my friend to the guide's gold teacher,Just let me shout if you want me to,I can also tell you the correct single making techniques and mentality,Various solutions for lock orders. This is the key to turning your losses into profits!


Free benefits within the technical guidance group:


① Daily updates:Market trends and intraday reminders,Opportunities for warehouse building.


② Featured columns:Private Q&A,solution τ,Analyze the trend of the day.


③ Welfare delivery:Golden Short Line Opportunity Layout,Continuous tracking(Band opening)。


④ New fan benefits:Trading tactics《KThe King of Online Trading,Teach you how to do a good job in the short term