ATFXPeople's Bank of China1periodMLFInterest rate reduction10Base point,USDCNHSoaring

today9:20The People's Bank of China has issued a notice:4000Convenient Medium Term Loan of One Hundred Million Yuan（MLF）Operation(Including pairs8month16dayMLFExpired renewal)and20100 million yuan open market reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a decrease in bid interest rates10Bps to2.75%and2% . Last timeMLFThe adjustment of reverse repurchase interest rate was made this year1month17On the same day, it was mentioned in the announcement that: Medium term loan convenience（MLF）The bid winning interest rates for both operational and open market reverse repurchase operations have decreased10Bps to2.85%and2.1% . Time interval7Within a month, the People's Bank of China once again lowered its open market interest rates, revealing a strong determination at the financial level to boost economic development and improve market expectations.

Last Friday, the People's Bank of China released7The monthly statistical report on the increment of social financing scale mentions that the increment of social financing scale is7561100 million yuan, less than the same period last year29.6% . Social finance data is an indicator of the potential for economic expansion. If the economy grows at a high speed, it represents a strong demand for funds. Conversely, it indicates that the economy is facing difficulties in development. Today, the People's Bank of China downgradesMLFThe direct reason for interest rates is7The unexpected decrease in the scale of social financing in the month.

1month17After the People's Bank of Japan announced a reduction in interest rates,1month20On the th, the National Interbank Funding Center will1periodLPRInterest rate from3.8%Down to3.7% . Based on this judgment, the People's Bank of ChinaMLFThe interest rate isLPRThe anchor of interest rates. Expected to be this Thursday (with the highest probability and possibly other dates)1periodLPRInterest rates will be lowered10Base point action.

As of today15:40，USDCNHrise0.56%, highest touch6.7761 . Today's starting point is9:20to9:25The time period indicates that the main driving factor is the People's Bank of China's downward adjustmentLPRNews of interest rates. From a technical perspective,USDCNHIt is still in a volatile state for four months and is likely to remain volatile in the future. Although the People's Bank of China's interest rate reduction will promoteUSDCNHUp, but in the United States7Of the monthCPIFalling back will have a reverse effect.

In general, interest rate cuts will boost stock market confidence, as the liquidity of the renminbi will increase. However, as of the closing date, Shanghai and Shenzhen300Index slightly declined0.13%The Shanghai Composite Index also fell, with only a slight increase in the Shenzhen Composite Index. The uneven state of ups and downs indicates that10A basis point interest rate cut is not enough to stimulate market optimism.

1periodMLFLowering interest rates will drive1periodLPRInterest rates have decreased, but for5periodLPRThe impact of interest rates is limited, so this week5periodLPRThere is little possibility of a synchronous reduction in interest rates. Mortgage loans in the real estate market often10Starting in the year, it hardly exists1Loans settled within the year. Therefore, the impact of today's central bank interest rate cut on the real estate market is not significant.

For the bond market, lower interest rates mean higher prices, and the income from participating in short-term treasury bond bonds and financial bonds will be relatively considerable.

ATFXAnalyst team concise viewpoint:MLFLower interest rates, boostUSDCNHThe bond market has no significant impact on the stock and real estate markets.

*Risk Tips and Disclaimers*
There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious. The above contents only represent the views of analysts and do not constitute any operational recommendations.
2022-08-15