Guide to Gold Economist: Analysis of Gold Trends, Continued Volatility in the US Dollar, Coming Weekly Minutes

　　goldMessage interpretation:


The US dollar index continued to strengthen on Friday, rising all the way up since the opening, reaching a peak of105.9Nearby. Gold also maintained a strong upward trend on Friday, closing up at1800Above the US dollar. Silver also showed a unilateral upward trend, reaching a new high since the current round of rebound during the closing period20.85Around the US dollar. The largest in the worldETFPosition data shows that gold8month12dayETFDecline in position1.45Tons, the trend of reducing positions has continued. silverETFThe position data remains unchanged. Recently, the market has maintained high volatility,ETFThe holding data also appears hesitant. It can be seen that there is currently no consensus among the main market forces on the future direction.


Since this summer, the world has been hit by extreme weather. The almost unprecedented high temperatures have led to the drying up of some major rivers in Europe, affecting important economic channels and exacerbating the energy crisis on the European continent. According to data from the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration, the Rhine River level has decreased to40The critical water level in centimeters will continue to decline in the next three to four days10-15Centimeters, the river may dry up and cause navigation interruption. If there is a disconnection, it will hinder the transportation of a series of commodities such as energy, food, and daily necessities. The German side stated that priority will be given to railway transportation of energy necessities. The impact of extreme weather will further affect the economy of the European continent. If shipping is blocked, it will disrupt the supply chain and affect inflation in Europe. Looking far away can even affect the war situation between Russia and Ukraine. Investors should closely monitor the impact of climate change on the current situation.


Today's Focus:


　　20:30Canada6Monthly wholesale sales rate


　　20:30U.S.A8New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the Month


　　22:00U.S.A8monthNAHBReal Estate Market Index


　　22:50Federal Reserve Governor Waller delivers a speech at the meeting


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold closed positive again last week, with a strong rebound in four consecutive positive sessions on the weekly chart. With the increase of space, the previous downward trend has partially reversed in the short term. The weekly line forms a stop and rebound, at the neckline1680The counterattack after stabilizing also showed a trend of consolidation and upward trend last week, with consolidation and correction in the upward trend. Belongs to a stronger correction technique. The rhythm of the daily structure is slightly slow, combined with the slow rise of the double yin, one yang or one yin, two yang style oscillation, and the upward trend while accumulating momentum. Last Friday1783After frontline defense, the market closed again at1800.Although the daily line did not form a complete unilateral long position in the process of pulling the moving average index to turn, during the consolidation process, the daily line closed generally last Friday, which is not conducive to a pullback, and is still relatively strong. It is currently due to the top deviation of the daily line, and it is not recommended to pursue a higher position;


　　4The hourly chart is in an upward wave shape, with the accumulation of momentum. As the low point of the back test rises, a clear small step oscillation rises. This step rise, the secondary low point is the short-term long critical point, and it is not advisable to be overly bearish before falling. The fall is only treated as a partial correction, as shown in the attached figureMACDThe indicator deviates from the digestion correction at the top, and after correction0Near the axis, the golden cross is once again upward, and the strong market has replaced a pullback with a horizontal consolidation correction, while the neckline of the hour chart is supported by1783.After multiple attempts, they still haven't fallen behind. From the perspective of weekly trading volume, the rebound structure of bulls remains the same, but there has been a deviation in the daily line, with bulls showing a slight shortage and not suitable for catching up in the short term. Today, in the early trading session, the current price remains aggressive as before1800-1805Short selling, stop loss1811, Objective1790-1780In short term light positions, in summary, today's gold operation guidelines suggest a rebound in high altitude, supplemented by a pullback in long positions, with the top following1800-1802USD resistance, follow below1783-1780Support.


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1800-1802Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1790-1785Nearby, break down and take a look1780frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1780-1783Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss5Points, target1790-1795Nearby, break down and take a look1800frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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