Guide Metallographer:8.15Today's gold trend analysis shows that gold prices still have expectations of strengthening this week

　　goldMessage interpretation:


The United States announced last Friday8Initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the month, results recorded55.1Higher than market expectations52.5And the previous value is51.5. After continuing the US non farm data, there are signs of gradual improvement in various aspects of the US data.


In addition, the United States7monthCPIThe decrease from the previous high point has to some extent eased the pressure on the Federal Reserve, but core inflation is still close to6%Near the level, this is the Federal Reserve2%Three times the target is far from a sustainable level. When the US economy continues to improve, usually at a high level, the market expects interest rates to continue to rise, at least50A basis point is the main expectation. But some people in the market still believe that,9Choose to raise the federal funds rate at the next meeting in the month75Basis points.9The expected monthly interest rate hike is beginning to diverge, and gold and silver have fallen into turmoil during the period of market divergence.


The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting are expected to be released this week, and the market is also looking for answers to the next steps in interest rate hikes from the minutes. Federal Reserve officials are7month26-27The policy meeting on the day decided to raise the benchmark interest rate for the second consecutive month75A basis point, creating the last century80The fastest pace of interest rate hikes since the early 1990s. Since then, due to data showing that the labor market is stronger than expected and inflation is lower than expected, financial markets have been more concerned about9The prediction of monthly interest rate hikes50-75Fluctuation between basis points. Looking forward to finding the answer from the minutes regarding the pace of future interest rate hikes.


Today's Focus:


　　20:30Canada6Monthly wholesale sales rate


　　20:30U.S.A8New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the Month


　　22:00U.S.A8monthNAHBReal Estate Market Index


　　22:50Federal Reserve Governor Waller delivers a speech at the meeting


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold closed positive again last week, with a strong rebound in four consecutive positive sessions on the weekly chart. With the increase of space, the previous downward trend has partially reversed in the short term. The weekly line forms a stop and rebound, at the neckline1680The counterattack after stabilizing also showed a trend of consolidation and upward trend last week, with consolidation and correction in the upward trend. Belongs to a stronger correction technique. The rhythm of the daily structure is slightly slow, combined with the slow rise of the double yin, one yang or one yin, two yang style oscillation, and the upward trend while accumulating momentum. Last Friday1783After frontline defense, the market closed again at1800.Although the daily line did not form a complete unilateral long position in the process of pulling the moving average index to turn, during the consolidation process, the daily line closed generally last Friday, which is not conducive to a pullback, and is still relatively strong. It is currently due to the top deviation of the daily line, and it is not recommended to pursue a higher position;


　　4The hourly chart is in an upward wave shape, with the accumulation of momentum. As the low point of the back test rises, a clear small step oscillation rises. This step rise, the secondary low point is the short-term long critical point, and it is not advisable to be overly bearish before falling. The fall is only treated as a partial correction, as shown in the attached figureMACDThe indicator deviates from the digestion correction at the top, and after correction0Near the axis, the golden cross is once again upward, and the strong market has replaced a pullback with a horizontal consolidation correction, while the neckline of the hour chart is supported by1783.After multiple attempts, they still haven't fallen behind. From the perspective of weekly trading volume, the rebound structure of bulls remains the same, but there has been a deviation in the daily line, with bulls showing a slight shortage and not suitable for catching up in the short term. Today, in the early trading session, the current price remains aggressive as before1800-1805Short selling, stop loss1811, Objective1790-1780In short term light positions, in summary, today's gold operation guidelines suggest a rebound in high altitude, supplemented by a pullback in long positions, with the top following1800-1802USD resistance, follow below1783-1780Support.


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1800-1802Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1790-1785Nearby, break down and take a look1780frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1780-1783Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss5Points, target1790-1795Nearby, break down and take a look1800frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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