Guide Jin Shi: Mei9The difference in monthly interest rate hikes is still ongoing, and the short-term rise in gold prices is difficult to overcome volatility

Market Review:


InternationalgoldFriday(8month12day)Volatile closing up, opening price1794.75dollar/Ounces, highest price1801.93dollar/Ounces, lowest price1794.75dollar/Ounces, closing price1800.72dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Friday8The initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the month was recorded55.1Higher than market expectations52.5, previous value is51.5.


The comment states that the consumer confidence index has slightly increased this month, compared to6The historical low reached in month is about5. All components of the expected index have improved, especially for low and middle-income consumers who are particularly sensitive to inflation. The economic outlook for the next year will significantly increase, slightly higher than2022The average level in the second quarter of the year, while the other two expected index components remain at or below the average level in the second quarter. The current personal financial situation and durable goods purchasing situation of high-income consumers, who account for a large proportion of expenses, have significantly decreased. With the continuous decline in energy prices, the expected median annual inflation rate has decreased to5.0%, for2The lowest level since January, but still much higher than the same period last year4.6%The level of. The median long-term inflation expectation is3.0%. The uncertainty about long-term inflation has weakened. Nevertheless, there are still close48%Consumers believe that inflation has eroded their living standards.


Federal Reserve official Barkin stated that in the9We still have a lot of time before the monthly meeting. Demand is clearly weak, especially for low-income consumers. A tight labor market does not necessarily lead to inflation. The economic fundamentals are good.


Morgan Stanley analysis states that,7monthCPIThe decrease from the previous high point has to some extent eased the pressure on the Federal Reserve, but core inflation is still close to6%Near the level, this is the Federal Reserve2%Three times the target is far from a sustainable level. Near the core of the federal funds rateCPIPreviously, it was difficult for the Federal Reserve to slow down the pace of interest rate hikes. raise interest rates50A basis point is still the main market expectation, but25The probability of a basis point is very low. The recent market rebound is just a bear market rebound. Policies have slowed down economic growth, and in this context, corporate profits will decline.


Wells Fargo Bank analyzed that the United States7monthCPILower than expected, leading some analysts to predict that the Federal Reserve's tightening of monetary policy will weaken. But considering the unexpected increase in data from the first two months,7The slowdown in monthly price growth did not bring inflation to a substantially lower level. The Federal Reserve may interpret the expected increase as further signs that inflation has not yet begun to continue to cool, further supporting our view thatFOMCWill be on9Choose to raise the federal funds rate at the next meeting in the month75Basis points.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve9Monthly interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is55%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is45%； reach11Monthly cumulative interest rate increase75The probability of a basis point is33.8%Accumulated interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is48.8%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is17.3%。


Today's Focus:


　　20:30Canada6Monthly wholesale sales rate


　　20:30U.S.A8New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the Month


　　22:00U.S.A8monthNAHBReal Estate Market Index


　　22:50Federal Reserve Governor Waller delivers a speech at the meeting


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold closed positive again last week, with a strong rebound in four consecutive positive sessions on the weekly chart. With the increase of space, the previous downward trend has partially reversed in the short term. The weekly line forms a stop and rebound, at the neckline1680The counterattack after stabilizing also showed a trend of consolidation and upward trend last week, with consolidation and correction in the upward trend. Belongs to a stronger correction technique. The rhythm of the daily structure is slightly slow, combined with the slow rise of the double yin, one yang or one yin, two yang style oscillation, and the upward trend while accumulating momentum. Last Friday1783After frontline defense, the market closed again at1800.Although the daily line did not form a complete unilateral long position in the process of pulling the moving average index to turn, during the consolidation process, the daily line closed generally last Friday, which is not conducive to a pullback, and is still relatively strong. It is currently due to the top deviation of the daily line, and it is not recommended to pursue a higher position;


　　4The hourly chart is in an upward wave shape, with the accumulation of momentum. As the low point of the back test rises, a clear small step oscillation rises. This step rise, the secondary low point is the short-term long critical point, and it is not advisable to be overly bearish before falling. The fall is only treated as a partial correction, as shown in the attached figureMACDThe indicator deviates from the digestion correction at the top, and after correction0Near the axis, the golden cross is once again upward, and the strong market has replaced a pullback with a horizontal consolidation correction, while the neckline of the hour chart is supported by1783.After multiple attempts, they still haven't fallen behind. From the perspective of weekly trading volume, the rebound structure of bulls remains the same, but there has been a deviation in the daily line, with bulls showing a slight shortage and not suitable for catching up in the short term. Today, in the early trading session, the current price remains aggressive as before1800-1805Short selling, stop loss1811, Objective1790-1780In short term light positions, in summary, today's gold operation guidelines suggest a rebound in high altitude, supplemented by a pullback in long positions, with the top following1800-1802USD resistance, follow below1783-1780Support.


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1800-1802Short (buy down) 2/10 positions in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1790-1785Nearby, break down and take a look1780frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1780-1783Nearby batch long (buy up) 2/10 positions, stop loss5Points, target1790-1795Nearby, break down and take a look1800frontline; (Suggested for reference only, investment carries risks, and caution is required when entering the market!)


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