Guide Metallographer:8.11今日黄金走势分析，金价冲高回落开启调整

Market Review:


InternationalgoldWednesday(8month10day)冲高回落维持震荡走势，开盘价1796.00dollar/Ounces, highest price1807.74dollar/Ounces, lowest price1787.24dollar/Ounces, closing price1797.82dollar/ounce.


Message face:


Wednesday's announcement of the United States7Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPIAnnual rate recorded8.5%, lower than market expectations8.7%, previous value is9.1%； U.S.A7After adjusting the roseCPIMonthly rate recorded0%, lower than market expectations0.2%, previous value is1.3%； U.S.A7Monthly and quarterly adjustment coreCPIAnnual rate recorded5.9%, lower than market expectations6.1%, previous value is5.9%。


　　评论称，7月份美国通胀明显放缓，给美国货币政策制定者和消费者带来了通胀已经见顶的希望。虽然汽油价格下跌对美国人来说是个好消息，但他们的生活成本仍然高得令人痛苦，迫使许多人刷信用卡，耗尽积蓄。尽管(U.S.ACPI放缓)值得庆祝，但8.5%的通胀率仍远高于美联储希望看到的水平。9Monthly interest rate increase50or75个基点的选项仍摆在桌面上。由于汽油成本大幅下降，美国7monthCPI年率有所回落，这为过去两年来目睹通胀攀升的美国人带来了第一个明显的缓解迹象。美国劳工部数据显示，7monthCPI月率持平，尽管如此，潜在的同行压力仍然很高，美联储仍在考虑是否在9月继续大幅加息，美联储曾表示，在减缓实施其激进的货币政策之前，需要看到CPI有数月的下降。


　　分析称，机构模型将美国通胀分解为四个部分：供应、需求、能源价格和货币政策。能源成本下降和美联储立场略微收紧是7monthCPI速降至8.5%的主要原因。与此同时，旺盛的需求加上供应紧张继续给通胀带来上行压力。由于后两个因素更难控制，美联储面临着一项艰巨的任务，其可能需要比目前市场预期的更加鹰派。


　　美联储官员卡什卡利表示，很高兴看到通胀意外下滑。今天的CPI数据不会改变我对利率路径的看法。美联储必须回到2％的通胀水平。明年初降息的想法“不现实”。更现实的做法是提高利率，直到通胀率降至2%。预计美联储利率在(this year)年底前达到3.9％，到2023年底之前达到4.4％。可能在不久的将来陷入衰退。经济衰退的风险不会阻止我们采取必要的行动，我们将把通胀率降至2%。


　　美联储官员埃文斯表示，收紧货币政策的力度可能足以降低通胀并使失业率仅上升到4.25%。认为加息不会使我们陷入困境。预计到2023年底，联邦基金利率在3.75％-4％的范围内。已做好准备迎接未来几个月数据的转变。在利率方面处于有利地位，如果需要，可以转向更具限制性的立场，或者不加息那么多。不认为会出现衰退，下半年经济应该显示正增长。几乎可以肯定的是，现在的经济会更脆弱一些，但需要一些不利因素才会触发衰退。通货膨胀“高得令人无法接受”。对经济继续增长持乐观态度。


　　高盛分析，从结构上看，由于增长和政策收紧因素继续相互抵消，黄金可能会继续陷于区间交易。对现货黄金未来3/6/12个月的最新预测是1850/1950/1950dollar/ounce(此前预测为2100/2300/2500/dollar/ounce)。


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve9Monthly interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is57.5%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is42.5%； reach11Monthly cumulative interest rate increase75The probability of a basis point is16.4%Accumulated interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is53.2%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is30.4%。


Today's Focus:


　　14:00Germany6Monthly and quarterly adjustment of current account


　　20:30U.S.A7monthPPIMonthly rate


　　20:30From the United States to8month6Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold reached a slight high yesterday and then closed flat, with a daily yield of slightly higherKLine, highest probe1807dollar|Ounces, the integer level has reached, with a slight decline in the end of the day and still closing at1794Nearby, previous high point. The daily line is currently entering a stage of being bullish to cautious. After releasing space through continuous rebounds, there is gradually resistance to suppress upward, and currently there is still a competition between rebounds and trend reversals. On the two trading days of this week, it was characterized by a seesaw oscillation, with a weak outlook and a fluctuation above the upward trend line. Insufficient spatial continuity and twists and turns. On a weekly basis, this week is the fourth week of rebound, with clear signs of weakness in strength. The weekly line may be accompanied by a double step back to confirm support. The common method of sawing and washing in volatile market conditions.4The hourly chart temporarily maintains stability and operates within the ascending channel, with repeated twists and turns, but the attached figureMACDUnable to reach new heights, causing the short-term rhythm to start sawing. At present, Bollinger Road has also started to close. Combining with yesterday's approach, although there has been a slight increase, sustainability is a problem, not unilateral, but rather presented in a fluctuating form for a longer period of time. It is difficult to achieve a one-sided market and space that is determined by the combination of space and form. The uncertainty of the long and short positions of the US dollar also makes it more difficult to determine the short-term range of gold. Perhaps it will be accompanied by a sawing and vibrating dish washing for a long time. In summary, the guidelines for today's gold operation are as follows: the gold teacher suggests focusing on rebounding from high altitude, with a short term focus on the upper part of the bullish market1802-1807Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1780-1775Frontline support.


Empty order strategy:


Gold rebound:1797-1800Short selling in batches nearby, stop loss5Points, target1790-1780Nearby, break down and take a look1775-1770First line (recommended for reference only!)


Multiple order strategy:


Gold Callback:1783-1778Batch long nearby, stop loss5Points, target1790-1793Nearby, break down and take a look1798-1803First line (recommended for reference only!)


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