Yu Yue on Jin:8.11How to Look at the Market of Gold and Crude Oil, and the Operation of Precious Metals and Bulk Commodities...

　　【goldAnalysis of the Latest Market Trends



Wednesday(8month10day)The international gold price set overnight7month5New high in recent days1800.30dollar/The ounce fell as US bond yields rose. Investors await US inflation data, expected7The consumer price index will slightly cool down in the month, but strong wage growth and high labor costs may undermine this expectation. Analysts believe that although a slowdown in overall inflation may lead some investors to believe that the Federal Reserve will stop raising interest rates, they still expect the Fed to12Raise interest rates to3.75%. Market analysts say, "Obviously, the focus is on US inflation data. Moreover, what is truly important is that prices are currently at1800Near the critical threshold of the US dollar. If the inflation data is stronger than expected, combined with the already released strong employment report, we may see the expectation of interest rate cuts next year fade, which will be detrimental to gold Bank analysts stated in a report that the Federal Reserve has warned that further interest rate hikes will be needed to control sustained high inflation. Investors expect7The monthly consumer price index will slightly cool down, but strong wage growth and high labor costs may undermine this expectation From a macro perspective, the US dollar seems to have been affected by the Federal Reserve and mostG10currency(Especially the European Central Bank)Supported by policy differences, the stabilization of the stock market seems to have weakened the safe haven value of gold. However, as concerns about a global economic recession intensify, market sentiment remains fragile, and widespread caution will limit the downside space for safe haven gold.



From a technical perspective, gold fluctuates and rises on a daily basis;MACDThe golden cross is preliminarily crossed over the zero axis, and the Bollinger Line has a slight opening. Pay attention to the Bollinger Line track1802.03Nearby resistance, if it can be overcome, the gold price will tend to move upwards along the Bollinger Line in the future, and the middle line can currently be referred to200Daily moving average1842.80Nearby,100The daily moving average resistance is also near this position; In the short term,7month4Resistance to daily highs1814.16nearby6month29Resistance to daily highs1832.96Nearby. Due to the current resistance on the Bollinger Line, the price of gold is still being suppressed,KDJSending overbought signals with a dead cross trend, investors also need to be cautious of the possibility of gold price fluctuations falling back, providing initial support1780Near the checkpoint, keep an eye on it10Daily moving average1775.55Nearby support, if the position is missed, increase the short-term bearish signal; Last Friday, the low point support was at1764.82Nearby, strongly supported7month8Daily high point1752.36Nearby. Looking at the daily chart, the price of gold varies from1754USD starts to riseiiiWaves, expected to rise and fall in the future market61.8%Target bit1801USD, and further up touch76.4%Target bit1813USD.iiiWaves are from1711The upward trend of the US dollar opening(iii)The sub waves of the waves.(iii)Waves are from1680The upward trend of the US dollar opening((i))The sub waves of the waves. In summary, the trading strategy for gold today suggests a rebound at high altitudes as the main focus, with a correction at low altitudes as a supplement. The focus should be on the upper level1810-1815Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1780-1785Frontline support.



　　【crude oilAnalysis of the Latest Market Trends



Wednesday(8month10day)International oil prices fell as industry data released overnight showed an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories last week, indicating potential fluctuations in demand. More market attention is focused on the negotiation of the Iran nuclear agreement, which poses uncertain expectations for whether supply can be expanded. Analysts said, "Oil prices are showing a weak trend." He also added that the United States7There is uncertainty in the expected performance of monthly inflation data, which limits the rebound of oil prices. US inflation data will be available on Wednesday Beijing time20:30Take out the furnace. Due to a significant decrease in gasoline costs, it is expected that the United States7The pace of consumer price increases in the month will slow down, but this will not prevent the Federal Reserve from further raising interest rates significantly in the short term, and economic activity and fuel demand still face suppression. Market analysts say, "Given the still sluggish supply outlook, no matter how much damage the global economic weakness causes to crude oil demand, it is impossible to further significantly suppress oil prices. More attention in the market is focused on negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal, which poses uncertain expectations for expanding supply." Despite concerns from analysts and industry observers that if the global economy falls into recession or high oil prices hinder passenger travel, The demand may waver. But American refiners and pipeline operators expect that,2022Energy consumption will remain strong in the second half of this year.



From a technical perspective, crude oil fluctuates and falls on a daily basis; The rebound of oil prices on the previous trading day was hindered, with a cross star indicating that the selling price above is still strong, and10The daily moving average suppresses oil prices,KDJLow position golden cross obstructed,MACDThe dead cross signal is still continuing, and the short-term rebound can also be explained by the impact of oil prices on8month1Daily low point92.41Confirming the retracement of nearby resistance, we need to be cautious of the risk of further decline in oil prices and continue to pay attention to it2month18Daily low point87.46Nearby support, if it breaks below this support, oil prices may further fall towards80Near the checkpoint, at least test it out1month24Daily low point81.90There is a high possibility of support near the checkpoint. Continue to follow above8month1Daily low point92.40Nearby support, if oil prices can be hindered87.46If there is support nearby and the resistance is broken, there is still a possibility of oil prices bottoming out and increasing short-term bullish signals; Further resistance reference200Daily moving average95.23，21The resistance of the daily moving average is also near this position. If it can be further broken, it will increase the bullish signal of the midline.4Hour level: low level oscillation; Closing of the Bollinger Line track, pay attention to the Bollinger Line track87.64-91.74Regional breakthrough situation. Breakthroughs in this region can provide further guidance for short-term trends. Overall, the short-term operation strategy for today is suggested to focus on rebounding at a high level, with a correction at a low level as a supplement. The short-term focus should be on the upper level84.8-85.3Frontline resistance, short-term focus below92.5-93Frontline support.