Guide Metallographer:8.10今日黄金走势分析，千八重现关注晚间CPI

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　由于汽油价格下跌和供应链问题减弱，通胀可能最终会降温。


　　据道琼斯的数据，经济学家预计7monthCPIWill rise0.2%Below6Of the month1.3%。与去年同期相比，7月份的消费者通胀增速预期将从6Of the month9.1%lower8.7%。


　　CPI将于美国东部时间周三上午8spot30分发布，预计将显示通胀终于见顶。投资者也在密切关注这份报告，以了解美联储为遏制物价上涨可能会采取多大力度的加息举措。


　　Jefferieschief economist Aneta Markowska说：“目前通胀有四个驱动因素。商品价格，正在消失；供应链问题，这种情况也正在消失。但还剩下住房和劳动力市场，这将在服务业通胀中体现出来。服务业通胀仍然是个问题，这是由住房和劳动力短缺造成的，这种情况在短期内不会消失，直到美联储设法破坏需求，而这种情况还没有发生。”


　　扣除能源和食品，由于租金和服务价格上涨，7monthCPI预计将上涨0.5%But compared to6Of the month0.7%有所下降。预计核心CPI同比仍将高于6月份，较6Of the month5.9%increase6.1%。


　　Moody's Analyticschief economist Mark Zandi说：“每个人都准备迎接相当好的消息，所以这一定是好消息。如果情况没有人们想象的那么好，那将是一个不同寻常的坏消息。”


　　他说，他预计整体通胀率只会上升0.1%。他说：“这将使年增长率达到8.7%，这个数字高得令人不安，令人痛苦，但正在朝着正确的方向发展。我认为6month9.1%的通胀率将是峰值……这在很大程度上取决于油价。”


　　通胀预期下降


　　这份报告出炉之际，消费者和市场对通胀的预期都在下降。纽约联邦储备银行本周的一项调查显示，消费者预计未来一年的通胀率将达到6.2%，未来三年的年通胀率将达到3.2%. And6月份的调查结果(Respectively6.8%and3.6%)相比大幅下降。


　　Zandi说：“这是通胀形势最积极的方面之一，通胀预期已经出现，消费者的预期已经出现，这在汽油价格下降的情况下并不令人意外。但更重要的是，债券市场的预期已经恢复……它们又回到了美联储目标的咫尺之遥，这是一个非常好的迹象。”


　　债券市场衡量通胀的指标，比如10年期盈亏平衡指数，显示投资者认为通胀速度比几个月前有所放缓。BMO Capital Markets美国利率策略主管Ian Lyngenexpress,10The annual breakeven rate is currently2.50%, lower than earlier this year3.07%The high point of. This means that market participants now anticipate the future10The annual average inflation rate for the year is2.50%。 He said,7monthCPI可能会比预期更低。他说：“有太多不确定因素，我们无法有特别强烈的看法，只能说这与通胀见顶相符，并将以此交易。”


Today's Focus:


　　14:00Germany7monthCPIMonthly rate final value


　　20:30U.S.A7Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPIthe annual rate


　　20:30U.S.A7After adjusting the roseCPIMonthly rate


　　20:30U.S.A7Monthly and quarterly adjustment coreCPIthe annual rate


　　22:00U.S.A6Monthly wholesale sales rate


　　23:00美联储埃文斯讨论美国经济和货币政策


The next day02:00美联储卡什卡利就通胀进行讨论


Technical analysis of gold:


　　白盘黄金基本如预期的承压1790一线居高震荡，下方回撤1783一线，白盘走势基本还是符合预期的，但欧盘时段受美指走势再度表现偏弱的影响，黄金也出现一波走高动作，高点测压至1795一线，虽然走高动能不是很强，且也并未改变日线以及小时图级别整体面临承压的局面，但是给短线操作上还是带来一定的麻烦的。4The hour is still in the process of rising. The key support point for this wave of upward trend is this upward trend line, which has repeatedly pushed up and down, but has never been able to fall below the upward trend line. In terms of technical structure, it has also maintained a fluctuating long position above the trend line. Currently, the support for the trend line is starting to move up1780附近。而随着昨日的启稳回升。


　　根据目前小时图结构，晚间行情或将继续保持居高震荡，如果出现再度回升也不意外，上方着重关注1800附近压力测试，如果行情能够测压至此，那么日线级别也将再度表现出严重的超买和顶部背离状态，回加重技术的看回修预期。不过目前受美指走势影响，黄金短线看涨情绪略显偏激，即便面临技术承压，可能回撤的空间也不会很大，下方可着重先关注1783-80争夺，如果跌破则再看1775一线争夺，此位得失将影响到日线级别的预期。综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议回调低多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方重点关注1805-1810Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1780-1775Frontline support.


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1800-1802Short selling in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1795-1790Nearby, break down and take a look1785Frontline; (Suggested for reference only!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1785-1788Batch long nearby, stop loss5Points, target1795-1800Nearby, break down and take a look1805Frontline; (Suggested for reference only!)


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