Guide Metallographer:8.10Today's gold trend analysis, US7monthCPI或显示通胀

Market Review:


InternationalgoldTuesday(8month9day)Volatile closing up, opening price1786.98dollar/Ounces, highest price1800.21dollar/Ounces, lowest price1783.05dollar/Ounces, closing price1795.97dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


　　美联储布拉德表示，如果通胀继续超出预期，美联储将准备好把利率“保持在更高水平更长时间”。我有点希望今年能把利率提高到3.75%To4％，然后看看冬天、明年第一季度的情况，再判断是否需要进一步加息，现在断言通胀已经见顶还为时过早。


　　摩根大通的经济学家表示，通胀削减法案对通胀攀升“几乎没有影响”，目前美国的通胀增长速度是40年来最快的。美国税收、气候和医疗保健法案预计在周五将提交众议院。国会预算办公室、美国尽责联邦预算委员会(CRFB)和宾夕法尼亚沃顿商学院预算模型都发现，该法案对通胀的影响微乎其微。摩根大通经济学家表示同意。该行首席美国经济学家迈Michael Feroli表示：“我们认为，药品定价规定短期内不会对CPI产生什么影响。”他还称：“如果像这个法案的支持者所宣称的那样，对经济供给面有长期的有利影响，那就是成长问题，而不是通胀问题。长期而言，通胀将被美联储政策所决定。"


　　美国银行表示，美国国债收益率曲线倒挂还会加深到什么程度，取决于美联储政策利率预期峰值的变化。该行美国利率策略主管Meghan Swibe表示：“倒挂的程度将取决于终端利率，它很可能是通胀的函数。”周二，美国2年期国债收益率较10年期国债收益率高出近50个基点，上一次达到这一水平是在2000year8月，原因是市场预期美联储利率将从当前的2.25%—2.5%区间升至3.5%左右的高点。Swiber写道，如果在市场对货币政策中性利率的评估不变的情况下，预期峰值上升0.5Bps to4%，则倒挂的幅度可能扩大到85个基点。如果中性利率也上调，终端上调0.5个基点可能会使收益率曲线趋平，仅为60Basis points.


　　分析称，投资者了解美国和全球经济都面临着重大挑战，但关注重点放在加息对市场造成影响的时间长度。若美国7月通胀数据意外疲软，可能成为金价大幅飙升的催化剂。


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve9Monthly interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is32.5%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is67.5%； reach11Monthly cumulative interest rate increase75The probability of a basis point is17.8%Accumulated interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is51.7%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is30.5%。


Today's Focus:


　　14:00Germany7monthCPIMonthly rate final value


　　20:30U.S.A7Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPIthe annual rate


　　20:30U.S.A7After adjusting the roseCPIMonthly rate


　　20:30U.S.A7Monthly and quarterly adjustment coreCPIthe annual rate


　　22:00U.S.A6Monthly wholesale sales rate


　　23:00美联储埃文斯讨论美国经济和货币政策


The next day02:00美联储卡什卡利就通胀进行讨论


Technical analysis of gold:


　　白盘黄金基本如预期的承压1790一线居高震荡，下方回撤1783一线，白盘走势基本还是符合预期的，但欧盘时段受美指走势再度表现偏弱的影响，黄金也出现一波走高动作，高点测压至1795一线，虽然走高动能不是很强，且也并未改变日线以及小时图级别整体面临承压的局面，但是给短线操作上还是带来一定的麻烦的。4The hour is still in the process of rising. The key support point for this wave of upward trend is this upward trend line, which has repeatedly pushed up and down, but has never been able to fall below the upward trend line. In terms of technical structure, it has also maintained a fluctuating long position above the trend line. Currently, the support for the trend line is starting to move up1780附近。而随着昨日的启稳回升。


　　根据目前小时图结构，晚间行情或将继续保持居高震荡，如果出现再度回升也不意外，上方着重关注1800附近压力测试，如果行情能够测压至此，那么日线级别也将再度表现出严重的超买和顶部背离状态，回加重技术的看回修预期。不过目前受美指走势影响，黄金短线看涨情绪略显偏激，即便面临技术承压，可能回撤的空间也不会很大，下方可着重先关注1783-80争夺，如果跌破则再看1775一线争夺，此位得失将影响到日线级别的预期。综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议回调低多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方重点关注1805-1810Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1780-1775Frontline support.


Empty order strategy:


Strategy 1: Gold rebounds1800-1802Short selling in batches nearby, stop loss6Points, target1795-1790Nearby, break down and take a look1785Frontline; (Suggested for reference only!)


Multiple order strategy:


Strategy 2: Gold Callback1785-1788Batch long nearby, stop loss5Points, target1795-1800Nearby, break down and take a look1805Frontline; (Suggested for reference only!)


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