Guide Metallographer:8.9今日黄金走势分析，金震荡静待美国通胀数据

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　上周五因公布的美国非农业就业数据表现大超市场预期，导致金银走出下跌，然而周一黄金和白银双双收复非农数据导致的利空下跌。本周三即将迎来美国7Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPI年率数据，市场预计通胀可能有所消退，但依然还是处于高位。


　　根据统计显示，美国消费者对短期、中期和长期通胀的预期中值都出现了不同程度的下滑，这意味着因美联储多次激进加息调控下，当地物价上行的动力可能已经开始消退。具体前瞻性数据显示，7月份美国消费者对未来一年通货膨胀率的预期中值为6.2%，未来三年的为3.2%, and6月份时这两项数据为6.8%and3.6%，分别下跌了0.6and0.4个百分点。未来五年的通胀预期中值也略微下滑，下降0.5Percentage points to2.3%。预计长期看通胀可以逐步缓解，甚至市场预计本周公布的7monthCPI同比增幅可能会出现见顶的迹象。具体数据如何，我们静等周三具体数据结果公布。


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold Trust持仓当前持仓量为996.16吨，这是自今年2月份来，首次跌破千吨，自6月下旬来黄金持仓量一直在降低，当然这只能代表对长期趋势持仓变化，短期趋势黄金依然还是处于反弹周期中。


　　黄金关注数据：


　　16:00China7monthM2Annual rate of money supply


　　18:00U.S.A7monthNFIBSmall Business Confidence Index


Technical analysis of gold:


　　昨日金价技术面企稳1770关口震荡迎来多头震荡上行修复，欧盘小幅冲高刺破1779一线承压快速回落二次回踩下探至1772一线企稳回升，晚间多头进一步反弹走高强势突破1780关口延续走强，并在凌晨震荡上行刺破1789一线强势收盘，日k线报收探底回升反包中阳，整体价格在1770上方再度出现强势企稳形态，今日短线价格还有进一步冲高上行预期，上方压力关注上周五开跌口1794上方，近期整体走势依旧处于多空震荡循环节奏，并非多头极强形态，今日冲高依旧可空一次再看回落震荡下方支撑关注1779关口，日内依托此区间继续看震荡。


　　从黄金盘面走势来看周线上在反弹触及到前期的压力位附近之后开始回落，在周线走势上连续的反弹完成之后大概率已经完成对于前期下跌的反弹修正，在周线走势上可能会开启第五浪下跌。在日线走势上非农之后大幅下跌几乎吞没掉上个交易日的涨幅，在H4级别走势上跌破前期的高位震荡区间自后惯性下跌，尾盘的一波小幅反弹基本完成技术形态的修复，黄金具备二次下跌的空间。高位冲高跳水，短期10average1780下成为反压，触及逢高空试探，下方留意66Daily moving average1753一线；黄金小时线级别：隔夜冲高回落，黄金承压1794-99，下方短期通道支撑1775-70一线，那么操作上可以依托1794-99分批空，综上所述，今日黄金操作思路上指南金师建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期关注1794-1799Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1775-1770Frontline support.


　　今日操作策略：今日周二消息面也较少，预计在1775-1795区间震荡，可采取高抛低吸操作


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