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Guide Metallographer:8.9今日黄金走势分析,通胀数据决定本周黄金...

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  goldMessage interpretation:


  黄金等待CPI确认


  值得注意的是,贵金属正在等待周三公布的美国通胀数据,以获得新的指引。


  7The monthly non farm employment data exceeded expectations significantly, indicating "wages"-The trend of inflation spiral continues, which further increases the market's concerns about inflation and the expectation of interest rate hikes. Now, the core is concern9Continue to raise interest rates on a monthly basis75One basis point. After the release of non-agricultural data, the market expects a rate hike75The probability of the basis point is already greater than the interest rate hike50One basis point, therefore the gold market plummeted. Next Wednesday, the United States will announce7monthCPIThe data will once again affect market expectations.


  美联储自今年三月以来已连续加息四次,后两次更是连续加息75个基点,四次共计加息225个基点。然而,6monthCPI达到炽热的9.1%,上周五公布的6monthPCE仍高达6.8%, higher than5Of6.3,6Monthly CorePCE 4.8%, higher than5Of4.7%。


  美联储激进加息预期再起,利空黄金。关注后续通胀数据,如果通胀持续高位,黄金依然走加息逻辑。美联储加息逻辑依然主导黄金交易,黄金短期反弹或结束,后续震荡偏空。


Technical analysis of gold:


Last week, gold first rebounded, followed by a correction, and then experienced an abnormal upward movement before non agricultural activities. However, on Friday, the non agricultural unexpected beauty triggered a significant rebound in gold. Prior to the unexpected rebound, the daily line closed with a negative line and the weekly line closed with a small positive line. The pressure was measured to10Near the weekly moving average, according to the weekly structure, short-term gains may be temporarily postponed. It is highly likely that there will be some correction adjustments this week, but the space is not expected to be very large. Below, we can focus on5Weekly moving average1750Nearby support.


In terms of daily structure, although the gold trend was a bit messy last week, the structural pattern is still very clear. Thursday's abnormal pull up and pressure measurement60The pressure near the daily line has led to a technical overbought market and a top deviation in technical indicators, which has also made room for the situation of non agricultural banks on Friday. After the non agricultural period, gold significantly retreated and fell back to5Daily line1775Below, although it will eventually close near this level, there is still a clear signal of adjustment at the daily level. There is a possibility that the market will continue to retreat this week, but currently the daily moving average is crossing upwards, so the moving average will also provide some support. Therefore, this week's gold can see the continuation of the recovery, but don't expect too much space. You can pay attention to it below first10Daily line1760Nearby support, if there is a break, then look again1750even to the extent that20Daily line1740Near.


The trend of gold combined with the hourly chart shows a significant pullback in the market after the announcement of non-agricultural products on Friday evening, with a downward trend1765Nearby rebound, but rebound not broken1780Since then, the market has been in a narrow range of sideways fluctuations until now, indicating that the confidence of market bulls has indeed been suppressed, but there have also been counterattacks. Therefore, although there is a need for continued decline in the market this week, it may not be easy to fall. Continue to follow above at the beginning of the week1780-83It is expected that there will not be a high possibility of a breakthrough in the short selling gap. You can continue to follow Friday's low point below1765as well as1760Nearby support testing, looking forward to market breaking1760But don't have too strong expectations, even if it falls, you need to take it step by step. In summary, the guidelines for today's gold operation are as follows: bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish bullish1783-1788Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1760-1755Frontline support.


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