陈嘉哲：黄金走势分析白银原油操作建议，静待非农

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　　goldMarket trend analysis;

　　美元指数昨日震荡下行，跌破近两日低点，一路回调至105.65附近，持续受到空头压制。黄金则走出单边逼空的走势，并且创出本轮上涨以来的新高，直逼1795的关口。白银则维持震荡上行，相对黄金较弱，并没有创出本轮以来的新高，依旧维持在区间附近震荡。

　　美国劳工部公布最新数据显示，美国至7month30The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week is26万人，高于前值的25.6万人，也高于预期的25.9万人。而更令人感到担忧的是，续请失业金人数升至141.6Ten thousand people, for4月份以来的最高水平。美国越来越多的企业宣布裁员，部分公司放缓招聘，过去两周内就有至少12家大公司宣布裁员。但结合目前的情况来看，就业市场依旧紧张，大规模的裁员还没开始。

　　美联储梅斯特继续释放鹰派信号，她认为美联储应加息至4%以上，以实现降低通胀的目标。她表示，决策者在选择放松货币政策之前，需要看到通胀率持续下降。

　　今日晚间将公布美国7月非农就业人口数据以及7月失业率。结合近一月初请数据来判断，本次非农数据以及就业率或将不乐观。本次非农数据预期值为25Ten thousand people, below the previous value37.2万人，如符合预期，数据很可能推动金价进一步上涨。但需要注意，如果数据符合预期，或将引发市场对后期美联储加息的担忧。

Today's Focus:

　　09:30澳洲联储公布货币政策声明

　　14:00Germany6Monthly industrial output rate after quarterly adjustment

　　14:00britain7monthHalifaxMonthly rate of housing price index after quarterly adjustment

　　14:45France6Monthly industrial output rate

　　14:45France6Monthly trade account

　　20:30Canada7Monthly Employment Number

　　20:30U.S.A7Monthly unemployment rate

　　20:30U.S.A7Non agricultural employment population after rose adjustment

Technical analysis of gold:

Yesterday, gold continued to fluctuate and rebound, and as expected, even broke through at the end of the trading day1790, tested to1795附近，日线收得一实体饱和阳线，在今晚非农数据将公布之前，黄金出现如此反常走势，无疑加大了今晚非农数据的不确定性风险。日线结构上，周二的冲高回落阴线并未来带来空间上的进一步回修，昨日行情持续震荡反弹，收得实体饱和阳线也很是意外，这不仅使得日线级别指标出现顶部背离，同时上方也将面临60Daily line1800附近压力，如果晚间非农利空黄金，那么昨日的这波反常上涨很有可能会给行情造成更大的空间回落。而如果晚间非农利多黄金，则昨日的反常上涨则提前透支了上涨空间，对于后面的分析以及操作上都带来难度而不是机会。日内黄金暂看上方60Daily line1800Nearby pressure, pay attention below5Daily line1775Nearby support, if there is an upward break, the trend will be abnormal, and it is also very likely to open up a new upward trend, but this approach is not very helpful for operation. If there is a downward break, the trend will be abnormal5On the daily basis, the short-term market trend is extended and adjusted, and there may be a pullback below20Near the daily line.

　　黄金结合小时图走势，昨日黄金持续攀爬回升，在重大数据前，行情以小碎步上涨的方式出现，很让人难以理解，对于这种反常的走势状态，务必要严加防范。日内黄金预期暂时还是会在1790Nearby competition for volatility, technical conditions allow market conditions to be tested1800Nearby, below focus on yesterday's abnormal rebound breakthrough1775-73This is also yesterday's market trend1790附近有承压后的回撤低点位，所以一旦此位失守，则短线的反常行情也就可能结束。操作上，鉴于今晚非农数据公布，市场情绪紧张异常，不确定的风险会比较大，故日内保守选择观望为宜。激进则还是参考技术走势需要，侧重于择高搏短空，但是务必要控制轻仓状态，严格带好止损，不断的尝试，以防市场情绪突变带来异动走势风险。综上所述，今日黄金操作思路上指陈嘉哲议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期关注1800-1805Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1780-1775Frontline support.

Author's message:

The answer to all questions is never unique and unchanging. Whether the market is going up or down, you cannot control it yourself. Only by keeping up with the pulse of the market can you avoid being eliminated. The market cannot always go up or down, and what is certain is that it will always go right. Risk is an objective, inevitable, and under certain conditions, it also has certain regularity, so we should pay more attention to risk control in operation.

This article is provided by Chen Jiazhe. I interpret the world economic news, analyze the global investment trends, andcrude oil、黄金、白银等大宗商品等有深入的研究，因网络发文有时效性，仅供参考，风险自担，转载请注明出处。