Guide Metallographer:8.5今日黄金走势分析，黄金数据前震荡调整

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　由于地缘政治紧张局势加剧，金价周四突破了1790美元。但分析师认为，周五即将出炉的就业报告可能会破坏黄金的上升势头。


This year7月，美元走强引发金价跌至每盎司1700美元，随后出现令人鼓舞的反弹。道明证券策略师表示，从技术面来看，若收盘价高于1789美元将是进一步上涨的坚实迹象。他们周四表示:“我们估计，如果金价收于每盎司1789美元以上，将足以催化市场动能的转变。”


　　然而，金价最大的障碍是周五将公布的美国7月份就业报告。道明证券策略师补充称：“我们预测该报告强于预期，可能很快为黄金投资者的普遍看涨情绪设限。


　　经济学家一致认为，美国非农6Monthly increase37.2万后，7Monthly increase25Ten thousand.


　　金价在3月份触及每盎司2000美元上方的高点后出现回落。但现在越来越多的分析师表示，金价正寻求恢复升势。


　　Bloomberg Intelligence高级大宗商品策略师Mike McGlone说：“黄金似乎更有可能恢复其持久的上升轨迹，突破每盎司2000美元左右的阻力位，而不是维持1700美元支撑位。美联储在2022年实施的自上世纪80年代以来最激进的收紧政策中抑制了黄金，加息减退前让黄金重新走上阻力最小的上行之路只是时间问题。”


　　美国全国广播公司财经频道CNBC的名嘴Jim Cramer本周也更新了他对黄金前景的看法，他说，在经历了他所称的贵金属“奇异时期”后，现在是进入黄金交易的最佳时机。


　　他引用了传奇市场技术专家Larry Williams的图表分析，他解释说：“Williams发现，当小投机者过于乐观时，这几乎总是我们接近顶部的迹象。但当他们过于悲观时，这几乎总是一个迹象，表明我们的手已经触底。根据最新的交易者报告，小投机者净多头有92690个黄金合约，这是他们自2019year5月以来最小的多头头寸，正处在黄金大幅上涨之前。”


　　他自己的观点是，在发现黄金底部时，不要去赌Williams会输。他重申：“技术图显示金价可能准备好上涨，现在可能是买入黄金的最佳时机。”


Today's Focus:


　　09:30澳洲联储公布货币政策声明


　　14:00Germany6Monthly industrial output rate after quarterly adjustment


　　14:00britain7monthHalifaxMonthly rate of housing price index after quarterly adjustment


　　14:45France6Monthly industrial output rate


　　14:45France6Monthly trade account


　　20:30Canada7Monthly Employment Number


　　20:30U.S.A7Monthly unemployment rate


　　20:30U.S.A7Non agricultural employment population after rose adjustment


Technical analysis of gold:


Yesterday, gold continued to fluctuate and rebound, and as expected, even broke through at the end of the trading day1790, tested to1795附近，日线收得一实体饱和阳线，在今晚非农数据将公布之前，黄金出现如此反常走势，无疑加大了今晚非农数据的不确定性风险。日线结构上，周二的冲高回落阴线并未来带来空间上的进一步回修，昨日行情持续震荡反弹，收得实体饱和阳线也很是意外，这不仅使得日线级别指标出现顶部背离，同时上方也将面临60Daily line1800附近压力，如果晚间非农利空黄金，那么昨日的这波反常上涨很有可能会给行情造成更大的空间回落。而如果晚间非农利多黄金，则昨日的反常上涨则提前透支了上涨空间，对于后面的分析以及操作上都带来难度而不是机会。日内黄金暂看上方60Daily line1800Nearby pressure, pay attention below5Daily line1775Nearby support, if there is an upward break, the trend will be abnormal, and it is also very likely to open up a new upward trend, but this approach is not very helpful for operation. If there is a downward break, the trend will be abnormal5On the daily basis, the short-term market trend is extended and adjusted, and there may be a pullback below20Near the daily line.


　　黄金结合小时图走势，昨日黄金持续攀爬回升，在重大数据前，行情以小碎步上涨的方式出现，很让人难以理解，对于这种反常的走势状态，务必要严加防范。日内黄金预期暂时还是会在1790Nearby competition for volatility, technical conditions allow market conditions to be tested1800Nearby, below focus on yesterday's abnormal rebound breakthrough1775-73This is also yesterday's market trend1790附近有承压后的回撤低点位，所以一旦此位失守，则短线的反常行情也就可能结束。操作上，鉴于今晚非农数据公布，市场情绪紧张异常，不确定的风险会比较大，故日内保守选择观望为宜。激进则还是参考技术走势需要，侧重于择高搏短空，但是务必要控制轻仓状态，严格带好止损，不断的尝试，以防市场情绪突变带来异动走势风险。综上所述，今日黄金操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期关注1800-1805Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1780-1775Frontline support.


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