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goldMessage interpretation:
黄金价格昨日延续小幅反弹节奏,不过空间暂时不算太大,在美盘时间段受阻后未能加速,目前还需要观察美联储内部的态度以及经济衰退的风险是否会进一步升温,现阶段离1800大关愈发靠近,所以本周是比较关键的时期,因为还有非农等重要数据的公布,可能会给金价接下来一段时间更加清晰的信号。
指南金师现货黄金参考新闻:上周公布的数据显示,由于二季度经济意外收缩,美国二季度消费者支出年化季率创两年来新低。沃尔玛、宝洁等零售消费品公司在过去一周下调了销售增长预期,它们表示,飙升的价格正在迫使消费者削减可自由支配支出。
Today's Focus:
12:30Federal Reserve of Australia Announces Interest Rate Decision
14:00britain7monthNationwideMonthly rate of housing price index
15:00瑞士第三季度消费者信心指数
22:00美联储埃文斯主持媒体早餐会
The next day01:00美联储梅斯特出席活动
2023yearFOMC票委、芝加哥联储主席埃文斯主持媒体早餐会;
2022yearFOMC票委、克利夫兰联储主席梅斯特出席华盛顿邮报举办的活动。
指南金师提别提醒:日内的市场重点集中在美联储的官员讲话身上,本周开始将会有更多美联储内部的声音发表,届时可以继续寻求一些关于加息的线索。除此之外,美国就业市场的状况也需密切关注,尤其是本周的非农数据。
Technical analysis of gold:
黄金日内先居高震荡,如预期回撤1760-57一带,欧盘时段行情也如预期再度回弹,目前翻上1770上方,虽然保持居高,但上涨动作并不连贯,跟进动能也显得不是那么的强,导致这种现象的主要原因有三点:一是因为黄金自身技术性承压,1770-80是前期我们预期的主要波段级别压制区域,也是此前多单的主要目标区域,行情回弹至此,多头动能衰减,加之可预见的空间也缩小了,故多头激进性不再那么高涨;二是美元指数也调整到预期支撑位,如果美指进行技术性超跌反弹,也会加大市场对黄金的看看力度,所以日内黄金进一步上涨动能受到牵制;三是基本面方面,上周美联储利率决定的短线影响已经基本被消化,三个交易日的时间足够了,而短线市场也可能因基本面清淡,导致方向难辨,或将根据本周非农数据来引导,所以周初行情延续一波回弹,后半周可能就会陷入震荡或技术性的承压回修。
日线形态反弹不错,但缩小至短周期,可以发现macd明显严重背离,急需回测一波去修正,而下方短期5average1745and10average1730,中轨1737都有不错的短期支撑点,触及都是短多参考位置;若循环五六月份走法,不难推测出,1711Starting point to1810下,会有一个大区间往复震荡过程,时间至少一个月,因此接下来的八月先围绕此大区间内做多看震荡对待;短期还处于空头趋势中,但反弹修正力度已经展开,因而步入震荡很正常;4小时级别当前关注10均线得失,一旦有效失守,则会试探中轨处1750-52一线;对应macd也即将高位形成死叉,短期价格在一定下探需求,甚至跌回1750其下,则很有可能行情提前进入短线变盘。综上所述,黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议以回调做多为主,反弹做空为辅,上方短期关注1780-1785Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1760-1755Frontline support.
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