Guide Metallographer:8.1今日黄金走势分析，美联储暗示放缓加息步伐

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Monday(8month1day)，国际金价承压，尽管美联储利率路径预期趋缓削弱美元，但美指收益率上升限制了金价快速上涨。不过，即将公布的美国7月非农就业数据可能表现不佳，金价后市继续看涨。


United States10年期国债收益率从接近四个月的低点小幅回落，这限制了金价涨势。但美元指数距离上个交易日创下的7month5Daily low point105.531Not far.


　　美国经济“技术性衰退”和美联储主席鲍威尔此前的言论表明，美联储已经失去了激进加息的动力。此外，美元7月末盘整也可能是金价回升的原因。


　　SPI Asset Management管理合伙人Stephen Innes表示：“美元一直处于不利地位，推动黄金走高。人们对经济迅速放缓的预期趋于一致，并暗示美联储收水力度会减弱。”


　　由于市场预计美联储将随着美国经济放缓而放慢加息步伐，黄金上周创下自3月以来的最大单周涨幅。现在市场关注重点放在本周五(8month5day)即将公布的美国月度非农就业报告上，这可能会影响美联储抗通胀路线图。


　　由于多家美国大型科技公司已停止招聘流程，因此经济数据可能表现不佳。市场预计，美国劳动力市场7月份料新增25万个工作岗位，增幅低于前值的37.2万个。此外，失业率稳定在3.6%。


　　尽管如此，美联储最为倚重的通胀指标——美国核心个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数——在6月份同比上涨4.8%, higher than the previous value4.7%。此后，明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡里向《纽约时报》表示，美联储距离退出加息还有很长的路要走，“在我看来，美联储在即将召开的政策会议上加息50个基点似乎是合理的。”


According toCME“联储观察”工具最新数据，交易员目前预计美联储将在9月份的下次会议上延续75个基点加息步伐的可能性不到30%，而加息50The likelihood of exceeding one basis point70%。


Today's Focus:


　　15:50France7Monthly manufacturing industryPMIFinal value


　　15:55Germany7Monthly manufacturing industryPMIFinal value


　　16:00eurozone7Monthly manufacturing industryPMIFinal value


　　16:30britain7Monthly manufacturing industryPMI


　　17:00eurozone6Monthly unemployment rate


　　21:45U.S.A7monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value


　　22:00U.S.A7monthISMmanufacturingPMI


　　22:00U.S.A6Monthly construction expenditure monthly rate


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金上周五白盘短暂震荡后再度回弹，测压至1768On the front line, the market has since rebounded, but currently it remains relatively strong. The main reason for the gold market's strength again within the day is driven by its own bullish sentiment, as well as the momentum brought by the US dollar index's recovery. At the current hourly chart level, gold has shown serious overbought behavior, and the technical trend has completed a short-term three band rise. Although there is still a possibility of further recovery in the weak US index and strong gold technology structure, the momentum for further increase is not expected to be very strong. Above can be followed1770Nearby pressure, we cannot rule out the possibility of a fourth wave or even a fifth wave of recovery in the market, but that trend is also too extreme and approaching our previous expectations above1770-80Strong pressure band, so the space for upward movement is also limited. Stay tuned below1750Consider this position as a turning point for the market to remain strong or turn weak in the near competition.


Gold4The hour chart is currently inCAmidst the rebound of the waves,AWave low point1680Make a wave of rebound,BWave low point1711Make it a rising point, this level is the critical point for the bullish rebound, extending above this level and breaking through1752It's the second highest point, breaking the previous record4The weak decline at the hourly level has driven the gold cross upwards with the current moving average indicator,K线形态短线连阳上扬配合小阴线回踩修正，正突破之际，短线走得相对还是强势，且回踩的空间略小，小周期形态小级别的多头强势，以横向整理代替反弹。综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期关注1775-1780Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1752-1747Frontline support.


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