指南金师：今日黄金走势分析

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　本周现货黄金连续第二周上涨，涨幅约2.06%. This week's increase is about36dollar/Ounces, amplitude3.27%The difference between high and low points is about56USD, high point1767.80dollar/盎司。其中周三至周五连续三个交易日录得涨幅，周四涨幅最大为1.28%。相应地，本周美元指数连续第二周下跌，跌幅约0.70%The low point is105.531。


Federal Reserve raises interest rates75个基点符合预期，美国第二季度GDP继续萎缩，黄金大涨


　　本周美联储在为期两天的FOMC货币政策会议后向外界宣布加息75个基点，这是今年连续第二次大幅加息75个基点，符合市场预期。此前由于6monthCPI数据显示同比涨幅高达9.1%，炽热的数据让市场一度认为美联储7Raising interest rates at monthly meetings100个基点的概率非常高，好在美联储官员及时发表讲话为此加息预期降温，重新将加息预期转向了75个基点，因此本次加息早已被市场消化。自今年3月以来，美联储将联邦基金利率总共上调225Basis points.


　　在宣布加息决定后，美联储主席鲍威尔随后主持了记者招待会。他指出，近期的一些支出和生产指标正在走软，同时经济增长和消费者支出也在放缓，但美国经济还没有陷入衰退，因为劳动力市场非常强劲。在9月份的会议上再一次“异常大幅的加息”可能是合适的，但鲍威尔补充称，这将完全取决于宏观数据。


　　鲍威尔强调，美国货币政策目前处于中性，这意味着美联储可能很快开始放缓加息步伐。他说：“现在我们处于中性，随着进程的发展，在某个时点，放慢速度将是合适的。我们还没有决定这个时点是什么时候，但直觉上这是说得通的。我们一直在前端加载这些幅度非常大的加息。现在我们离我们需要去的地方越来越近了。”这一清晰的加息路径放缓的信号给予了金价巨大的上涨动能。


　　此后一天，美国商务部经济分析局披露的数据显示，继今年第一季度GDP年化季率意外下降1.6%之后，第二季度继续意外下降0.9%，预期是增长0.5%。依照标准定义，美国经济已经陷入了技术性衰退。尽管鲍威尔否认美国经济陷入衰退，美国财长耶伦和美国总统拜登先后都发表言论表示支持其观点，但经济衰退的脚步已然越来越近了，这是因为这一结论不仅得到了季度GDP数据的支持，而且还得到了如下两个重要数据的佐证，至少美国经济已处在经济衰退的边缘。其它重要数据还将陆续出炉。


　　金融市场，尤其是固定收益市场，仍然指向衰退。两年期美国国债收益率在7月初升至十年期美国国债之上，此后一直保持在这一水平。这种被称为反向收益率曲线的走势，几十年来一直是一个可靠的衰退指标。不过，美联储更密切地关注十年期和三个月期国债收益率之间的关系。下图为美国十年期国债收益率与三个月期国债收益率差值的曲线图，这条曲线尚未反转，但截至7month22日上周五收盘，在这条曲线上显示为0.28个百分点，貌似正以陡峭的角度急速向下方横轴坠落，而2020year3month4日以后均高于0.28。


　　U.S.Conference Board本周二报告，美国消费者信心指数从6Of the month98.7lower95.7。经济学家原本预计该指数为97.3。根据经济学家的说法，消费者信心的急剧下降可能会对消费产生重大影响，并对临近年底的经济造成压力。报告称，消费者乐观情绪的下降是由于现状指数PSI的下降，该指数从6Of the month147.2lower141.3。与此同时，预期指数EIfrom6Of the month65.8lower65.3，这表明，衰退风险仍在增加。


　　众所周知，劳动力市场的表现相对滞后于直接的经济现状，鲍威尔和耶伦拿劳动力市场表现强劲来说事显然是没有说服力的。况且，对于经济衰退的定义也是不可以随意根据个人的意愿而重新制定的。从美国经济届人士和政客的角度而言，他们是不希望给予市场任何美国经济衰退的预期的。目前，美联储主席就好像踩在一条钢丝上，左边下面是衰退深渊，右边下面是通胀火炉，而他手里拿着一根称为“利率”的平衡杆，左也不是，右也不是。鲍威尔在全世界的目光下表演着平衡术，心里的苦楚只有自己知道，不能向外人道。尽管美联储前期愿意以牺牲经济增长来换取通胀降温，但是随着增长放缓现出衰退的苗头，以及人们对美国经济陷入衰退的担忧不断加剧，美联储自身已经发出了放缓收紧政策的信号，为其立场软化留下了空间。这表明，逐步降低加息幅度，甚至是美联储政策转向降息也是可能的。黄金正走在迎来曙光的路上！


Today's Focus:


　　13:30France Q2GDPAnnual rate initial value


　　14:30Switzerland6Monthly actual retail sales annual rate


　　14:45France7monthCPIMonthly rate


　　15:00Switzerland7monthKOFEconomic leading indicators


　　15:55Germany7Number of unemployed people after quarterly adjustment


　　15:55Germany7Unemployment rate after quarterly adjustment


　　16:00Germany Q2 not seasonally adjustedGDPAnnual rate initial value


　　16:30britain6Monthly central bank mortgage loan permit


　　17:00eurozone7monthCPIAnnual rate initial value


　　17:00eurozone7monthCPIMonthly rate


　　17:00Eurozone Q2GDPAnnual rate initial value


　　20:30Canada5monthGDPMonthly rate


　　20:30U.S.A6Monthly CorePCEAnnual rate of price index


　　20:30U.S.A6Monthly CorePCEMonthly rate of price index


　　20:30U.S.A6Monthly personal expenditure rate


　　21:45U.S.A7Month ChicagoPMI


　　22:00U.S.A7Final Value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the Month


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金昨日先抑后扬，先行回踩1711First line stabilization and consolidation. In the second half of the night, we will recover the lost land and at the same time adjust the high point at the beginning of the week1739Also virtual break, highest1740.Closing at1735Above. Daily closing with a bullish candlestickKLine. Yesterday, as a key turning point in the short term, was unable to fall back and close lower. Influenced by the news, it brought back the rebound style and closed at a high levelKThe closing trend continued to rebound.4Before the hour chart1680doAWaves rebounded, yesterday at1711Once again stabilizing and rebounding, currently breaking through the high point1739Afterwards, there is a continuationBThe waves rebounded. Structurally, a wave shaped rebound correction has been formed, so yesterday's closing pattern is quite important if it can directly fall and close lower. If the rebound wave shape cannot continue, it will form a weak downward trend in the short term. The reverse trend of closing higher and breaking through the high point is a continuation of the rebound space. At present, after repeated downward explorations and rebounds at the beginning of the week, it has actually driven the short-term moving average to turn downward and form support.4Hourly support1711Construct a rebound channel at a low point. This level is the critical point for bulls, and it will fall below in the future1711Only then can it turn weak again. Short term support within the day1711做防守先行低多看反弹，破位再调整思路，同时在反弹的过程中，遇到阻力也会回踩，短线是震荡思路，低多高空卡区间。综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期关注1765-1770Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1740-1735Frontline support.


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