Guide Metallographer:7.28今日黄金走势分析，美联储加息意有减缓预期

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Interpretation of the Golden News:


Early Thursday, Beijing time2Point, Federal ReserveFOMCpublish7月利率决议，连续第二个月加息75个基点，将联邦基金利率的目标区间从1.50%to1.75%Ascend to2.25%to2.50%, in line with market expectations.


　　FOMC声明显示，委员们以12-0的投票比例通过此次的利率决定，上次会议乔治希望加息50个基点。美国就业增长强劲，失业率保持低位，但最近的支出和生产指标已经走软(声明中的微小变化)。通胀仍然居高不下，委员会高度关注通胀风险，坚定致力于让通胀回归其2%The goal of.FOMC“预计继续上调该目标区间将是合适之举”，如果风险可能阻碍实现通胀目标，美联储将调整政策。(美联储过去5个月的加息幅度相当于2015Year to2018年加息幅度的总和。)声明称，将按计划在9月份加速缩表，抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)的每月缩减上限将升至350亿美元，而国债的每月缩减上限将升至600USD100mn


　　美联储主席鲍威尔表示，下次会议大幅加息可能是合适的，要取决于数据；随着利率的提高，放缓加息步伐也可能是合适的，尚未就何时放慢加息做出决定。他希望在今年年底前达到适度的紧缩水平，即利率达到3%-3.5%区间。他强调，如果需要，将毫不犹豫地采取更大的行动。美联储将在每次利率会议上逐次就货币政策做出决定，避免发表具体的指引，不会对9月会议提供具体指引，将关注9月会议前的所有数据。鲍威尔强调，需要保持灵活，将努力避免增加不确定性。经济增长将有一段时间低于趋势水平，低于趋势水平的增长可能是降低通胀的必要条件。这一过程可能会包括一段增长较低、劳动力市场疲软的时期，软着陆的可能性明显缩小，第二季度经济放缓值得注意。


　　前纽约联储主席杜德利评论称，我们在市场上看到的只是一种“缓解性反弹”，因为“风险事件已经结束”。目前市场还没有消化美联储6月份的预测，即年底前将利率上调至3.25%-3.5%And then in the2023Annual interest rate hike50个百分点。因此，如果美联储主席鲍威尔是对的，他强调这是最有可能的路径，这一事实实际上使市场定价错误。


　　与美联储议息日期挂钩的掉期显示，美联储9Monthly interest rate increase at least50The probability of a basis point is100%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is37%。11Monthly interest rate increase at least25The probability of a basis point is100%Interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is14.8%，全年余下3次会议将累计加息约99个基点将利率提高至3.32%。


Today's Focus:


　　17:00eurozone7Monthly Industrial and Economic Prosperity Index


　　17:00eurozone7Final value of monthly consumer confidence index


　　20:00Germany7monthCPIInitial monthly rate


　　20:30From the United States to7month23Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week


　　20:30US Q2 ActualGDPInitial value of annualized quarterly rate


　　20:30美国第二季度实际个人消费支出季率初值


　　20:30US Q2 CorePCEInitial value of annualized quarterly rate of price index


Technical analysis of gold:


　　近几天黄金维持小区间震荡，市场相对比较保守，同时也可以看出市场对此次利率决议高度关注。黄金日线级别来看，昨日再次收报一根长上影阴K线，高点压力逐步下移，不过有趣的是短期均线金叉而逐步扩展；一方面压力逐步下移，一方面短期均线支撑又始终未破下去，这就步入了这几日以来的区间窄幅运行；显然，目的就是为了等待今夜凌晨2点美联储利率决议的公布；按照市场预期加75基点概率最大，则加息落地后，黄金会出现“卖事实”的一波急速反抽上行，力度如何要根据后续市场对于美联储态度变化的炒作，但最终还会被打压下来，前两次的走势就是如此，急速反弹都基本只有一个夜间，最多加一个白天；如果是加息50个基点，那么小于市场预期，黄金才会出现较大力度的反弹；而加息100基点概率很小，若意外发生，黄金则不能参与多；当前10Moving average support1713，中轨阻力下移1744frontline.


Gold4小时级别来看，价格反复上下串于10均线，整体走势不稳，处于震荡期，延续性差；分割压力1728始终无法站上，压力仍存在；对应macd零轴之上运行，容易酝酿顶背驰而压制，思路上仍倾向于冲高回测；黄金小时线级别：隔夜压制1720窄幅整理，当然有所反弹，阻力关注1728下，一个是昨天高点，一个是趋势阻力衍生点；只要欧盘期间还是压制昨日高点下运行，那么美盘又大概率会走跌反复整理；而加息落地前，金价会处于压制，一旦公布前后有一个相对回落低位，比如1700一线或上方些，则公布后，狙击低多成功率会大些，入场胆量也会大些。综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期关注1742-1747Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1714-1709Frontline support.


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