Guide Metallographer:7.27今日黄金走势纠结，待FED给出指引

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Wednesday(7month27day)，国际金价小幅上涨，但金市总体上仍缺乏明确趋势性，因为投资者在可能影响黄金走势的美联储关键利率决定公布之前避免过度押注。隔夜公布的美国7月谘商会消费者信心指数创2021year2New low since the beginning of the month.


　　美债收益率走强打压黄金需求，但美元在上一交易日大涨近0.7%后回落，增强了美元计价黄金对其他货币持有者的吸引力，进而限制了金价跌幅。


　　美联储将在北京时间周四(7month28day)2:00结束政策会议。人们普遍预计，美联储将延续6月份节奏——再加息75个基点。美联储试图在不引发经济衰退的情况下避免通胀失控。


The United States announced overnight7月谘商会消费者信心指数创2021year2月以来新低。谘商会经济指标高级主管Lyn Franco说，美国人对通货膨胀的担忧，尤其是不断上涨的汽油和食品价格，继续给消费者带来压力。她还补充说：“展望未来，通胀和大幅加息可能会在未来6个月继续对消费者支出和经济增长构成强劲的阻力。”


　　摩根士丹利研究部经济学家预计：“美联储可能会以相对鹰派的措辞设立7月加息政策框架，从而打压风险资产并全面提振美元。另外我们认为全球经济前景支持维持美元多头头寸。市场对2022年美国经济增长的悲观预测已大幅回落，开始接近我们自己的预期水平附近。但是，全球其他地区经济增长预期可能会进一步得到下调。”


　　ACY Securitieschief economist Clifford Bennett表示：“这将是历史上最完全预期、市场完全定价的75个基点加息。”他说，短期和中期交易者希望在事件发生前卖出黄金，预计决议结果对金价不利，但黄金买家正等待价格下跌预期创造市场均衡。


　　除此之外，交易员还将从定于周五(7month29day)发布的美国个人消费支出报告(PCE)中找寻线索。PCE是美联储青睐的通胀指标，将在短期内对推动金价走势发挥关键作用，并帮助投资者确定下一阶段方向性走势。


Today's Focus Data:


　　09:30Australia Q2CPIthe annual rate


　　14:00Germany8monthGfkConsumer confidence index


　　16:00Switzerland7monthZEWInvestor confidence index


　　20:30U.S.A6Monthly rate of durable goods orders


　　22:00U.S.A6Monthly rate of contracted sales index for completed housing


The next day02:00Federal ReserveFOMCAnnounce interest rate resolutions and policy statements


The next day02:30美联储主席鲍威尔召开货币政策新闻发布会


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金昨日如预期陷入震荡，上方回弹测压至1728一线后承压回落，低点跌回至1713附近，随后持续于1720-15区间窄幅震荡，日线收得一小阴星线日线结构上，黄金连续两日收小阴线，虽然未跌回5、10日线下，但上方20日线压力也始终未能触及，这就使得短线结构重心有所下移倾向，行情可能会再出现一波回撤风险。鉴于明凌晨美联储利率决定公布，市场情绪高度谨慎紧张，观望情绪也非常浓，故日内黄金大概率还是会围绕5、10日线进行震荡，但从现有技术状态以及市场对美联储加息75个基点的预期来看，黄金可能会更偏向于再下破一次5、10日线，找稳下方支撑后再进行技术性回弹，且此回弹也还得建立在美指承压基础上。


　　小时图上，黄金两度回撤至预期支撑1715-13区域，虽然支撑有效，但是表现出的上涨欲望却不是很强，且此前上方也并未触及预期的压力位，小时图技术结构也呈现下倾状态，虽然整体偏向横盘，但均线交叉向下，短线结构重心有所下移，一定程度上会加大行情下破一次的风险。日内黄金下方继续还是关注1713-10区间下沿支撑，做好可能跌破此支撑的心理预期，但是考虑到明凌晨美联储利率决定的影响，日内对于看空也停留在看，莫要伸手参与，日内的操作风险还是非常大的，综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期关注1730-1735Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1710-1705Frontline support.


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