Real time online analysis of the latest trend and operational strategies of gold today τ

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Gold Analysis:

Analysis of Gold News: Wednesday(7month27day)In the Asian market, the spot gold continued to be under pressure, and the gold price is now reported1717dollar/盎司附近。目前市场焦点都集中于周三的美联储会议上，外界普遍预计美联储将再度加息75基点。全球经济衰退预期、地缘局势紧张、美债收益率下降，给金价提供了一些支撑，但美元守住布林线中轨后反弹，令金价承压。今日需要关注的数据有，澳大利亚第二季度CPI年率、德国8monthGfk消费者信心指数、欧元区6月家庭贷款年率、美国6Initial monthly wholesale inventory rate, US6Initial monthly rate of durable goods orders and the United States6月季调后成屋签约销售指数月率。此外，次日凌晨美联储将公布最新的利率决议需要重点关注。

Thursday Hong Kong Time02:00Federal Open Market Commission(FOMC)将公布利率决议及政策声明；香港时间周四02:30，美联储主席鲍威尔将召开货币政策新闻发布会。多数投资者等待纽约时段的美联储利率决议，市场普遍预期美联储将降息75Basis points, interest ratefuturesDisplay the Federal Reserve raising interest rates100The probability of is only24%; Investors need to focus on the hawk dove tendency of interest rate decisions, as at least interest rates need to be raised75个基点，偏向鹰派的可能性要略微大一点，但投资者更关注年内剩余时间的加息安排。

　　目前投资者预计美联储主席鲍威尔可能为9Monthly interest rate hike50Basis points or75个基点做好铺垫，金价短线仍有进一步下行风险，但投资者还需留意美联储对经济衰退的观点和态度，如果多次提交经济衰退，则有望给金价提供探底回升的机会。需要提醒的是，美联储利率决议前，市场还将迎来美国6月耐用品订单月率初值，该数据对金价的影响力还比较大，目前市场预计环比下降0.4%，5Monthly growth0.8%，该数据预期略微利好金价；如果数据差于预期，则有望给金价提供一些上涨动能。如果意外大幅好于预期，则短线料将拖累金价表现。

　　黄金技术面分析：黄金昨日如预期陷入震荡，上方回弹测压至1728一线后承压回落，低点跌回至1713附近，随后持续于1720-15区间窄幅震荡，日线收得一小阴星线日线结构上，黄金连续两日收小阴线，虽然未跌回5、10日线下，但上方20日线压力也始终未能触及，这就使得短线结构重心有所下移倾向，行情可能会再出现一波回撤风险。鉴于明凌晨美联储利率决定公布，市场情绪高度谨慎紧张，观望情绪也非常浓，故日内黄金大概率还是会围绕5、10日线进行震荡，但从现有技术状态以及市场对美联储加息75个基点的预期来看，黄金可能会更偏向于再下破一次5、10日线，找稳下方支撑后再进行技术性回弹，且此回弹也还得建立在美指承压基础上。

　　小时图上，黄金两度回撤至预期支撑1715-13区域，虽然支撑有效，但是表现出的上涨欲望却不是很强，且此前上方也并未触及预期的压力位，小时图技术结构也呈现下倾状态，虽然整体偏向横盘，但均线交叉向下，短线结构重心有所下移，一定程度上会加大行情下破一次的风险。日内黄金下方继续还是关注1713-10区间下沿支撑，做好可能跌破此支撑的心理预期，但是考虑到明凌晨美联储利率决定的影响，日内对于看空也停留在看，莫要伸手参与，日内的操作风险还是非常大的，上所述，黄金今日操作思路上陈嘉哲建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期关注1730-1735Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1713-1708Frontline support.

　　crude oilLatest market analysis:

Analysis of crude oil news: Wednesday7month27At the beginning of the Japanese market, Meiyou Trading was trading on95.54dollar/桶附近，油价周二下跌近1%，受累于美国释放原油储备，同时国际货币基金组织对经济前景持悲观态度，下调全球经济预期;另外，猴痘疫情全球蔓延也为空头助力;日内交易或更多受到晚间EIA数据的影响。日内重点关注美国6月耐用品订单月率初值、美国6月批发库存月率初值、EIAdata;Thursday2:00发布美联储利率决议、2:30美联储主席鲍威尔讲话。

　　原油技术面分析：原油周二看压制空，在98.6附近提示买入小幅获利平仓，日线收成小阴KLine, forming a surge and fall back. The daily line is still in a downward trend, mainly due to the repeated support of the short-term neckline. Reflected in the short form, it is a back and forth sawing.4The hour chart impacted the upper track of the Bollinger Road and fell back under pressure, closing at the middle track. Today, there are signs of a drop in the lower track in the short term. Although there was a rebound at the beginning of the week. but4The overall operation of the hour is still in the downward channel, but the fluctuation base is large, which makes the amplitude of the downward channel relatively large. Currently4Looking down at the lower track first, relying on99.0Create a new platform defense point, with the down track position still in place92.80-92.0.多空胶着的位置，短期还会伴随来回拉锯。综上所述陈嘉哲总结：今日原油操作思路上建议以反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方短期关注97.2-97.7Frontline resistance, short-term focus below93.5-94.0Frontline support.

Author's message:

The answer to all questions is never unique and unchanging. Whether the market is going up or down, you cannot control it yourself. Only by keeping up with the pulse of the market can you avoid being eliminated. The market cannot always go up or down, and what is certain is that it will always go right. Risk is an objective, inevitable, and under certain conditions, it also has certain regularity, so we should pay more attention to risk control in operation.

This article is provided by Chen Jiazhe. I interpret world economic news, analyze global investment trends, and conduct in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, and silver. Technical Director Chen Jiazhe provides online solutions, loss recovery, and one-on-one real-time guidanceQQ;2702332902 VX:YJY33388Due to the delayed nature of online push, the above content is my personal suggestion. Due to the timeliness of online publishing, it is for reference only and at my own risk. Please indicate the source for reprinting.