Chen Zeqiang:7.27美联储加息来袭！黄金最新行情走势分析策略...

Acquaintance is fate, acquaintance is fate. I firmly believe that it is fate to meet for a thousand miles, and it is fate to wipe our shoulders without a share. The journey of investment is long, and temporary gains and losses are only the tip of the iceberg along the way. You should know that a wise man who has a thousand worries will have a loss, and a fool who has a thousand worries will have a gain. No matter how emotional you are, time will not stagnate due to you. Pick up the boredom in your heart and stand up again to pack up and move forward. At this moment, being able to read here indicates that you and I are destined. As long as you are willing to share your gains and losses with me, I will be happy to help you overcome difficulties and become your confidant on the investment journey. The stagnation of your heart makes you sit at the bottom of the well and sigh in the sky. Am I fortunate enough to accompany you as I pass by.

Investment itself has no risk, only out of control investments have risk

　　goldLatest market analysis:

Analysis of Gold News: Wednesday(7month27day)In the Asian market, the spot gold continued to be under pressure, and the gold price is now reported1717dollar/盎司附近。目前市场焦点都集中于周三的美联储会议上，外界普遍预计美联储将再度加息75基点。全球经济衰退预期、地缘局势紧张、美债收益率下降，给金价提供了一些支撑，但美元守住布林线中轨后反弹，令金价承压。今日需要关注的数据有，澳大利亚第二季度CPI年率、德国8monthGfk消费者信心指数、欧元区6月家庭贷款年率、美国6Initial monthly wholesale inventory rate, US6Initial monthly rate of durable goods orders and the United States6月季调后成屋签约销售指数月率。此外，次日凌晨美联储将公布最新的利率决议需要重点关注。

Thursday Hong Kong Time02:00Federal Open Market Commission(FOMC)将公布利率决议及政策声明；香港时间周四02:30，美联储主席鲍威尔将召开货币政策新闻发布会。多数投资者等待纽约时段的美联储利率决议，市场普遍预期美联储将降息75Basis points, interest ratefuturesDisplay the Federal Reserve raising interest rates100The probability of is only24%; Investors need to focus on the hawk dove tendency of interest rate decisions, as at least interest rates need to be raised75个基点，偏向鹰派的可能性要略微大一点，但投资者更关注年内剩余时间的加息安排。

　　目前投资者预计美联储主席鲍威尔可能为9Monthly interest rate hike50Basis points or75个基点做好铺垫，金价短线仍有进一步下行风险，但投资者还需留意美联储对经济衰退的观点和态度，如果多次提交经济衰退，则有望给金价提供探底回升的机会。需要提醒的是，美联储利率决议前，市场还将迎来美国6月耐用品订单月率初值，该数据对金价的影响力还比较大，目前市场预计环比下降0.4%，5Monthly growth0.8%，该数据预期略微利好金价；如果数据差于预期，则有望给金价提供一些上涨动能。如果意外大幅好于预期，则短线料将拖累金价表现。

　　黄金技术面分析：黄金昨日如预期陷入震荡，上方回弹测压至1728一线后承压回落，低点跌回至1713附近，随后持续于1720-15区间窄幅震荡，日线收得一小阴星线日线结构上，黄金连续两日收小阴线，虽然未跌回5、10日线下，但上方20日线压力也始终未能触及，这就使得短线结构重心有所下移倾向，行情可能会再出现一波回撤风险。鉴于明凌晨美联储利率决定公布，市场情绪高度谨慎紧张，观望情绪也非常浓，故日内黄金大概率还是会围绕5、10日线进行震荡，但从现有技术状态以及市场对美联储加息75个基点的预期来看，黄金可能会更偏向于再下破一次5、10日线，找稳下方支撑后再进行技术性回弹，且此回弹也还得建立在美指承压基础上。

　　小时图上，黄金两度回撤至预期支撑1715-13区域，虽然支撑有效，但是表现出的上涨欲望却不是很强，且此前上方也并未触及预期的压力位，小时图技术结构也呈现下倾状态，虽然整体偏向横盘，但均线交叉向下，短线结构重心有所下移，一定程度上会加大行情下破一次的风险。日内黄金下方继续还是关注1713-10区间下沿支撑，做好可能跌破此支撑的心理预期，但是考虑到明凌晨美联储利率决定的影响，日内对于看空也停留在看，莫要伸手参与，日内的操作风险还是非常大的，上所述，黄金今日操作思路上陈泽强建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期关注1730-1735Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1710-1705Frontline support.

Analysis of silver market trend:

Paper and Silver: The Daily Line Meets a Unilateral Downtrend, Once Detected4.38The decline was alleviated near the checkpoint, but unfortunately4.75The pressure at the checkpoint was enormous, but in the end, it still shook and broke through4.38At the checkpoint, the decline further expanded to3.92Near the checkpoint, the rebound was very weak and bearish losses were full. Now the daily line has been tested twice in a row3.92The rebound in level support indicates that there is buying support, which can alleviate the decline in the short term, but the bearish trend is extremely under pressure,MA5—MA10Downward suppression with dead fork on the moving average; The weekly trend is also a five consecutive negative downward trend, coupled with a surge in the monthly trend5.5The barrier at the pass ushered in a three consecutive decline in Yin. Bulls still need time to digest if they want to turn the situation around, and now they should focus on it4.15Crossing situation, step back3.95Multiple orders can still be arranged nearby.

SilverTDSilver Early Impact5300The pass is obstructed, and the double top above is extremely heavy, resulting in unilateral downward movement and continuous breaking5000Da Guan and4500Previously low, it has now refreshed to a low level of4000At the checkpoint, the decline was extremely fierce. The space under the current Daily Line Bolin has been successfully opened,MA5—MA10The moving average is suppressed with a dead fork downward, and the bearish trend is clear at a glance. Now focus on4000Can the big level be supported? We can lay out more options here to see the rebound and recovery. Of course, if the trend is favorable, it will still be bearish. Today's rebound4200Be bearish.

　　本文由陈泽强分析师独家原创，本人一直热衷于黄金、crude oil市场，由于网络推送延迟性，以上内容属于个人建议，因网络发文有时效性，仅供参考，风险自担，转载请注明出处