Guide Metallographer:7.22Today's gold trend analysis,1725目前处于多空分界线

　　goldMessage interpretation:

Thursday's announcement from the United States to7month16Record of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the current week25.110000 people, higher than market expectations24万人，前值为人24.410000 people.

　　评论称，美国各州申请失业保险的人数连续第三周上升，达到去年11月以来的最高水平，原因是越来越多的公司宣布裁员，这表明原本稳固的就业市场出现了一些疲软。截至7month16日当周，首次申请失业救济人数增加7000People, to25.1万人。经济学家预期中值为24万人。截至7month9日当周，续请失业金人数增加5.1Ten thousand people, to138万人，为去年11The largest weekly increase since the beginning of the month.

　　周四公布的欧元区至7month21The main refinancing rate of the European Central Bank in Japan is0.5%Higher than market expectations0.25%, previous value is0.00%。

　　欧洲央行行长拉加德表示，大多数核心通胀指标已经上升，预计通胀在一段时间内将处于不可阻挡的高位；欧元走势对未来的通胀有影响；疲软的欧元是更大幅度加息决定的原因之一；经济活动放缓，今年下半年及以后的前景黯淡；劳动力市场依然强劲；银行向家庭提供的贷款仍然强劲，但预计贷款量会下降；此前对9月加息的前瞻性指导不再适用；

　　富国银行分析称，欧洲央行在过去几天确实向媒体发出了加息50个基点的信号，所以今天的行动不算意外，今天最大的收获之一是，欧洲央行对其前瞻性指引的态度更加开放。欧洲央行对欧元的影响将在很大程度上取决于传导保护工具。如果这是一种可信的工具，而且能为外围国家债券提供保护，那么总体而言，这可能对欧元有利。

　　路透社分析，欧洲央行行长拉加德对前瞻性指引的解释使得9Monthly interest rate increase75个基点摆在了桌面上。拉加德强调，6月前瞻性指引显示，9月份的加息幅度有可能超过25个基点，她对此补充称，“你们中的一些人猜测幅度是50个基点”，暗示这种假设是错误的，暗指9月份的会议上加息75个基点的可能性很大，尤其是现在欧洲央行完全放弃了前瞻性指引的情况下。

　　惠誉分析，新冠疫情使美国州政府做好了应对更大宏观压力的准备。大多数美国州政府将表现出足够强大的财政韧性，以应对未来几个月整体经济增长放缓的局面。2023年的收入预测表明，由于美国各州预计会遭受挑战，增长预计将继续放缓，甚至可能下降。预计到2022财年末或2023财年，美国各州政府评级指标将有所回落，反映出经济增长的实质性减速。

According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is72.7%Interest rate hike100The probability of a basis point is27.3%； reach9Monthly cumulative interest rate increase75、100The probability of each basis point is0%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is37.8%Accumulated interest rate increase150The probability of a basis point is49.1%Interest rate hike175The probability of a basis point is13.1%。

Today's Focus

　　14:00 britain6Monthly retail sales rate after quarterly adjustment

　　15:15 France7Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value

　　15:30 Germany7Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value

　　16:00 eurozone7Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value

　　16:30 britain7Monthly manufacturing and service industryPMI

　　20:30 Canada5Monthly retail sales rate

　　21:45 U.S.A7monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value

　　21:45 U.S.A7monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value

Technical analysis of gold:

　　黄金昨日震荡单边下跌，美盘开盘公布失业金数据小幅利多，这个消息影响还是小的，主要是欧洲央行要加息50个基点！欧洲央行以“鹰派意外”开启11年来首次加息，欧元跳升美指回落，带动黄金上涨，目前美指反转上涨，黄金要看一波下跌，不过下方1680支撑再次试探了，形成了个三底形态，短期内没有强消息面的刺激怕是很难走出下破了，就等28号美联储加息。目前的走势支撑上移到1700一线，上方多空分水岭是越过日线10Daily moving average1725，那么就有望企稳延续涨势。

　　黄金果不其然终是如预期一致企稳年线关键支撑1680开启多头反攻模式，那么空头的虚晃结束，下跌浪型彻底走完，准备迎接多头的开始发力吧，强调了目前的高通胀不是强烈加息这招能直接解决的，黄金的避险属性必将发力，盘面中黄金再度受大量买盘助力企稳1700之上，无疑是探底回升的节奏，所以咱们思路也就该明确了，下方极有可能形成大三底支撑金价，低多是接下来的重点趋势，点位上稳健建议大家继续关注1700区域；目前黄金没有破位1680支撑，也没有破位1724上方阻力，短线还是在下跌承压区间内震荡，那么操作上的思路就非常明确，回调1700附近做多，不破阻力做空，综上所述，今日黄金操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方关注1725-1730One line of resistance, pay attention below1702-1700Frontline support.

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