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Guide Metallographer:7.21全球央行纷纷加息,金价跌破千七大关

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  goldMessage interpretation:

  投资者在央行会议前继续减少风险敞口,黄金跌破每盎司1700美元。尽管黄金被视为通胀对冲工具,但利率上升增加了持有非孳息资产黄金的机会成本。

  欧洲央行定于日内稍晚启动11年来的首次加息。欧银此前承诺本月加息25个基点,但由于决策者担心消费者价格增长可能失控,因此市场预计欧银可能扩大升息幅度至50Basis points.

  外界普遍预计,美联储将在下周的政策会议上加息75个基点。而英国6月通胀飙升至40年高位,增加了英国央行下个月加息0.5个百分点的可能性。

  美国零售销售和密歇根大学消费者信心指数向好,消费者对未来5年的通胀预期从3.1%lower2.8%,缓解了对美联储在7Raising interest rates at monthly meetings100个基点的担忧。但价格上行压力仍远未得到控制。

  美国房地产市场已开始感受到加息带来的痛苦。最新数据显示,美国6月份新屋开工减少2%, down to9月份以来的最低水平,而营建许可下降0.6%,这两个数据都是月度数据。美国成屋销售下降了5.4%,创两年来新低。也就是说,美国经济开始出现衰退信号。

WithIT巨头谷歌过去两周停止招聘流程,美国进入经济衰退的机率有所上升。促使央行毫不犹豫地收紧政策的催化剂是劳动力市场紧张。现在,市场预计未来几个季度谷歌将裁员也预示着美国就业机会正减少。美国经济面临劳动力市场疲软和通胀上升带来的双重影响。

  随着全球央行继续收紧货币政策,金价将继续承压。尽管如此,由于经济衰退的担忧依然存在,如果全球央行收水过快,并被视为经济衰退,黄金交易员应该对市场潜在变天做好准备。

Today's Focus:

  11:00 日本央行公布利率决议和前景展望报告

  14:30 Bank of Japan Governor Toshiko Kuroda Holds a Press Conference

  20:15 The European Central Bank Announces Interest Rate Resolutions

  20:30 From the United States to7month16Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week

  20:30 U.S.A7Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index

  20:45 欧洲央行行长拉加德召开新闻发布会

  22:00 U.S.A6Monthly consultation chamber leading indicator monthly rate

Technical analysis of gold:

  周三黄金空头重启,下跌再次刷新低点,趋势力度在午夜偷跌至1692,单日有22美金的跌幅,虽然没有前期的强势,但再次给多头的反攻沉重一击。对于趋势而言,多头已经完全沦陷,前期讲过,黄金跌破1700关口,下方就要去1675,而且并不一定是低点,这个周期顺势看空即可。日线压制在单边均线之下收大阴,很明显,这个周期黄金下跌再次开启,并且看不到底部,周线和月线也看不到底部,只有一个1675的参考点。如果跌破,下方就没有支撑,发展空间就无限量。因此,暂时黄金在1695附近还有较大的下跌空间,交易还需顺势做空,不猜底。

  黄金到目前为止打破了窄幅区间震荡,目前的已经跌破前低点1697一线,横盘震荡的时间拉的越长爆发出来的空间也就会越大。4小时级别走势上的技术形态基本修复完成但是价向下破位,在H1级别走势上也练出走出向下破位延续的节奏,短期的走势仍相对偏弱一些。小周期4In the hourly chart,5,10日单边均线压制在1700,1707,日内顺势做空策略是等待反弹1700做空,美盘的力度先看1685Look again1675,如果意外大涨站稳1707之上则再次转为震荡。对于日内行情而言,黄金继续保持趋势空,看空不追空,亚欧盘等待反弹,趋势压制点在1700,1707,反弹结束后再做空。综上所述,今日黄金操作思路上指南金师建议反弹做空为主,回调做多为辅,上方关注1705-1710USD resistance, follow below1680-1675USD support.

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