Guide Metallographer:7.21今日黄金走势分析，黄金周四更换区间下跌...

　　goldMessage interpretation:

Wednesday's announcement of the United States6Annualized total sales of completed houses512万户，低于市场预期538Ten thousand households, with a previous value of541Ten thousand households.

Commentary states that the United States6月份成屋销售降至两年来最低水平，借贷成本飙升继续侵蚀人们的购房负担能力。美国全国地产经纪商协会公布的数据显示，美国6The total monthly sales of completed houses are annualized as512万户，较上月下降5.4%。经济学家的预期中值为535万。销量连续第五个下滑，这是自2013年以来最糟糕的情况，而且可能会进一步恶化。美联储正积极加息以对抗通胀，这一举措令整个房地产市场降温。高抵押贷款利率抑制了买家需求，迫使一些买家退出交易。随着库存开始增加，一些卖家开始降价。

　　路透调查显示，受访的102位经济学家中有98位表示，美联储将在7月将联邦基金利率上调75个基点。受访经济学家预计美国经济在一年内衰退的概率为40%，两年内为50%。(6The monthly surveys are as follows:25%and40%)受访经济学家预计，美国CPIstay2022Year and2023年的平均涨幅分别为8.0%and3.7%。(6The monthly surveys are as follows:7.4%and3.2%)。

　　高盛CEO所罗门分析，美联储的紧缩政策将令经济增速放缓，何时恢复增长“非常不确定”。所罗门表示高盛预期相当长一段时间内经济衰退可能性都比较高，每个人都需要保持谨慎。预测(U.S.A)经济衰退的可能性更高。

　　布朗兄弟哈里曼银行经济学家指出，尽管有报道称欧洲央行明天可能加息50个基点，但欧元已经在1.0275附近失去了上涨动力。对欧元来说，最好的结果是加息50个基点，并宣布推出激进的抗金融分化工具，而最坏的结果是只加息25个基点，并进一步推迟该工具的使用。该行经济学家认为，加息50个基点可能会短暂地提振欧元，但欧洲央行可能无法交出一个可信的抗金融分化工具，这一事实最终应该会对欧元构成压力。

According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is68.5%Interest rate hike100The probability of a basis point is31.5%； reach9Monthly cumulative interest rate increase75、100The probability of each basis point is0%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is32.9%Accumulated interest rate increase150The probability of a basis point is50.7%Interest rate hike175The probability of a basis point is16.4%。

Today's Focus:

　　11:00 日本央行公布利率决议和前景展望报告

　　14:30 Bank of Japan Governor Toshiko Kuroda Holds a Press Conference

　　20:15 The European Central Bank Announces Interest Rate Resolutions

　　20:30 From the United States to7month16Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week

　　20:30 U.S.A7Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index

　　20:45 European Central Bank President Lagarde Holds a Press Conference

　　22:00 U.S.A6Monthly consultation chamber leading indicator monthly rate

Technical analysis of gold:

　　周三黄金空头重启，下跌再次刷新低点，趋势力度在午夜偷跌至1692，单日有22美金的跌幅，虽然没有前期的强势，但再次给多头的反攻沉重一击。对于趋势而言，多头已经完全沦陷，前期讲过，黄金跌破1700关口，下方就要去1675，而且并不一定是低点，这个周期顺势看空即可。日线压制在单边均线之下收大阴，很明显，这个周期黄金下跌再次开启，并且看不到底部，周线和月线也看不到底部，只有一个1675的参考点。如果跌破，下方就没有支撑，发展空间就无限量。因此，暂时黄金在1695附近还有较大的下跌空间，交易还需顺势做空，不猜底。

　　黄金到目前为止打破了窄幅区间震荡，目前的已经跌破前低点1697一线，横盘震荡的时间拉的越长爆发出来的空间也就会越大。4小时级别走势上的技术形态基本修复完成但是价向下破位，在H1级别走势上也练出走出向下破位延续的节奏，短期的走势仍相对偏弱一些。小周期4In the hourly chart,5，10日单边均线压制在1700，1707，日内顺势做空策略是等待反弹1700做空，美盘的力度先看1685Look again1675，如果意外大涨站稳1707之上则再次转为震荡。对于日内行情而言，黄金继续保持趋势空，看空不追空，亚欧盘等待反弹，趋势压制点在1700，1707，反弹结束后再做空。综上所述，今日黄金操作思路上指南金师建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方关注1700-1703USD resistance, follow below1680-1675USD support.

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