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Guide Metallographer:7.20担忧全球央行激进加息,金价或进一步探底

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  goldMessage interpretation:

  昨日欧元区6monthCPI年率终值公布,数据录得8.6%Expected to be8.60%, previous value is8.6%。由于通胀加剧,欧洲央行周四可能考虑将上月拟定的25个基点的加息幅度扩大一倍。此举将标志着欧洲央行大幅偏离6month9日政策会议制定指引以来,大多数欧洲央行管委会成员一直坚持的指引,并将使欧洲央行更符合全球大规模加息的要求。

  英国央行行长贝利表示,货币政策将使通胀回落到目标水平,并且英国央行正考虑8Monthly interest rate hike50个基点。另外,关于英国央行的缩表计划,他希望这份国债出售计划,最早可能在9月进行的会议上经投票确认后开始。

  澳洲央行昨日公布货币政策会议纪要,澳洲联储认为有必要进一步收紧政策,因为目前1.35%的利率远低于中性水平,澳洲联储主席洛威认为中性利率在2.5%左右。下周澳洲将公布CPI,预计数据将显示二季度通胀年率加速至6%以上,而澳洲联储本身预计,到圣诞节时通胀率将至少达到7%。

Today's Focus:

  14:00 Germany6monthPPIMonthly rate

  14:00 britain6monthCPIMonthly rate

  14:00 britain6Monthly Retail Price Index Monthly Rate

  16:00 eurozone5Monthly adjusted current account

  20:30 Canada6monthCPIMonthly rate

  22:00 U.S.A6Annualized total monthly housing sales

Technical analysis of gold:

  黄金日线级别布林带开口向下,价格沿着布林下轨震荡下跌,整体上黄金当前还处于弱势走势中,任何的横盘或反弹都只作为修正,不看做反转;即便有反转迹象,也要突破站上此通道上轨,方可最终确认;短期10均线压力下移1730frontline,4Hour level,macd底背驰状态给黄金有一定支撑表现,拉低容易反抽;而短期10均线和中轨多次承压不上,目前行情再跌回至1710附近,虽然市场表现出的状态是多头信心和实际动能不是很强,但技术上已经体现出反弹趋向,所以目前的回撤反倒可以给操作上带来一些机会。

Gold4小时布林道开始收平,短线局部收缩震荡,附图MACD此前创新低后出现底部背离,目前正处于修正背离当中,而修正手法结合反弹空间来看。属于弱势修正的手法,空间并没有形成反转向上,或者大幅度反弹。短线暂时还处于下跌台阶次高点1752下方震荡运行,同时离次高点还有一定距离。周初连续两个交易日维持在1726下方承压。小时图开始横向拉锯,形态稍显钝化。短线并看不出强弱延续,暂时进入震荡收缩当中。从日线的趋势来看,是空头趋势中的修正,主思路维持反弹高空。综上所述,黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议以反弹做空为主,回踩做多为辅,上方短期关注1718-1723Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1698-1693Frontline support.

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