Guide Metallographer:7.20今日黄金走势分析，低位震荡维持区间对待！

　　goldMessage interpretation:

　　加息100基点降温：本周美元指数高位回落调整，非美货币借机反弹，美元的下跌并未给黄金带来大幅上涨动能，从上周CPI数据公布之后市场基本赌美联储为了抑制高通胀会激进加息，从预期100Basis points80%到周末将至40%以下，市场降温，美元指数也高位承压展开回落，就目前而言市场很多人可能更担心激进加息可能会带来经济衰退，介于高通胀必须采取缩减，缩减力度过来可能会引起经济衰退，美联储大概率本月不会加息100Basis points.

　　核心CPI显示已经见顶，自今年3month6.5%高点之后持续下降放缓，主要是crude oil高位大幅下跌所致，预计将在后面持续放缓。

　　同时数据显示美国经济增速在最近几周大幅放缓，与此同时，亚特兰大联储的GDPNow模型现在预测第二季度美国经济收缩了1.2%。由于美国经济在第一季度已经萎缩1.6%，预计将连续两个季度衰退因此过分激进加息对美国经济衰退担忧将进一步增加。

　　资金流向，就美元本周下跌，黄金白银并未受市场青睐持续维持低位震荡，主要是加息未落地之前持续市场打压，避险情绪目前黄金可能不是第一避风港，但短期内期技术指标有反弹修正需求，技术面来看，黄金若本周不能完成破位预计将很难下破1700关口，需要快速下跌见底需求，整体而言美元上涨趋势没有改变之前黄金价格难以迎来中期上涨趋势。

　　美元指数日K目前回踩技术调整位，站稳将展开反弹，反之有测试105.6附近需求

Today's Focus:

　　14:00 Germany6monthPPIMonthly rate

　　14:00 britain6monthCPIMonthly rate

　　14:00 britain6Monthly Retail Price Index Monthly Rate

　　16:00 eurozone5Monthly adjusted current account

　　20:30 Canada6monthCPIMonthly rate

　　22:00 U.S.A6Annualized total monthly housing sales

Technical analysis of gold:

　　黄金昨日依旧低位窄幅整理修正，日线已连续停顿整理三个交易日，本周前两个交易日基本都处于1700上方震荡修正，美元的回落，限制了黄金的下跌动能，不过反弹的空间也不大，刚好配合技术指标的短暂局部修正，为后市下跌蓄势量能。日线目前暂时还处于10日线下方弱势整理，结合均线指标慢慢下移空头发散，而浪形空间仍在延伸当中，目前的停顿只是修正，并没有止跌见底迹象，还需要形态上的确认，未出现之前，先维持看空趋势不变。4小时布林道开始收平，短线局部收缩震荡，附图MACD此前创新低后出现底部背离，目前正处于修正背离当中，而修正手法结合反弹空间来看。属于弱势修正的手法，空间并没有形成反转向上，或者大幅度反弹。短线暂时还处于下跌台阶次高点1752下方震荡运行，同时离次高点还有一定距离。周初连续两个交易日维持在1726下方承压。小时图开始横向拉锯，形态稍显钝化。短线并看不出强弱延续，暂时进入震荡收缩当中。综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议以区间震荡为主，上方短期关注1720-1725Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1700-1695Frontline support.

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