指南金师：美元指数持续走弱，金银能否逆袭

　　goldMessage interpretation:

　　周二亚市早盘，国际金价在1705dollar/盎司上方盘整。周一借助美元高位回落的刺激，金价盘中一度涨超20美金，但在美债收益率上涨及ETF持仓下降的影响下，金价反弹遭遇滑铁卢，自当日高点回落近18美金，悉数吞没当日全部涨幅。值得注意的是美国房屋建筑商信心急搓且近几个月的成屋销售数据也出现连续下降情况，今年以来的房屋借贷成本已经急升，30年期固定利率抵押贷款的合同利率接近6%, creating14年来最高。加息对美国经济增长的负面影响逐步体现，这动摇了美联储7Monthly interest rate increase100基点的决心，目前市场焦点在于美联储7月是加息50基点还是75基点，这给了黄金多头反弹的机会。

　　消息面方面，克里姆林宫表示，俄罗斯将与伊朗合作，逐步放弃使用美元的做法。这有助于加速全球去美元化进程，不利于强势美元，利多黄金。此外，此前来自俄罗斯总理梅德韦杰夫关于克里米亚的言论，引发了一定的避险情绪。俄罗斯与乌克兰及北约的安全问题，将长期牵绊市场的避险情绪，对金价影响较大。

　　今日市场消息面相对较多，重点关注欧盘时段的英国失业数据及欧元区CPI数据，此外，晚间美盘时段将公布美国6月新屋开工及营建许可数据，考虑到此两项数据连续几个月下滑，若此次仍不及市场预期，则或对美联储7月加息幅度产生一定的影响。投资者需密切关注具体数据对黄金价格产生的影响，把握盘中交易机会！。

Technical analysis of gold:

　　黄金日内先震荡回弹，欧盘时段上方测压至1723/24一线，虽然对前期交易低点有刺破，但并未能成功拿下站稳，这也就说明当前市场多头的实际动能还是欠缺的，在强势美元的打压下，多头信心显得不是很足。欧盘时段黄金承压回修，目前行情再跌回至1710附近，虽然市场表现出的状态是多头信心和实际动能不是很强，但技术上已经体现出反弹趋向，所以目前的回撤反倒可以给操作上带来一些机会。

　　黄金下方先关注1710-07一带短线支撑测试，只要今日行情能够稳住或收于1710上方，那么技术角度就还是有回弹预期的，只不过受市场对美联储加息预期的影响，多头回弹信心会受到打压，未来回弹空间也就不会很大，对此需要多加留心注意。晚间上方则依旧先关注1720-22一带压力，站稳之上则短线下跌风险基本解除，但还能够带来多少回升空间，还是得要参考美指回修幅度。综上所述，今日黄金操作思路上指南金师建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方关注1718-1722USD resistance, follow below1700-1705USD support.

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