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local time13日,加拿大央行宣布将基准利率提高100Base point to2.5%,并称,如此高的单次加息幅度并不常见,目的是抑制40多年来最严重的高通胀问题(5monthCPILatest value7.7%)。加拿大央行的长期通胀目标为2%,其它国家央行的通胀目标也一样。由于能源价格和农产品价格持续走高,各国实际的通胀率与调控目标之间存在明显差距。
加息能否有效遏制高通胀,目前并没有确定性结论。一种悲观的说法是:加息非但不会令通胀回到正常水平,还会导致全球经济衰退。近期crude oilPrice drop below100美元,是这一说法的例证。加息消息公布后,加拿大元并没有如预期一般升值。USDCAD当日上涨1.05%, highest touch1.3223, creating near20个月以来最高值。这意味着,即便加拿大央行采取了激进的加息政策,市场资金也不认为加拿大元能够对美元升值。
*Risk Tips and Disclaimers*
There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious. The above contents only represent the views of analysts and do not constitute any operational recommendations.
2022-07-15