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goldMessage interpretation:
7month8日周五亚市盘中,国际黄金走势低位横盘震荡,金价早间开盘价格1740The US dollar has risen to a maximum of1746USD, lowest drop to1733美元,暂时录得一根阴十字星。
周二黄金向下破位,跌势在周三得到延续,两个交易日下跌近70美元,黄金短时间内大幅回落,主要因市场对全球经济特别是欧元区经济衰退的担忧加剧,这使得美元成为了投资者首选的避险资产,美元不断刷新近20年以来的新高,给金价持续施加压力。
周四黄金止跌企稳,到日内一直保持低位横盘震荡调整,目前市场焦点集中在晚间的美国6月非农报告,从此前公布的ISM制造业与非制造业以及初请失业金等数据来看,美国6月份失业率可能出现上升,新增就业可能出现放缓。
展望后市,指南金师认为,由于美国经济暂时没有受到能源问题的困扰,相对欧元区经济来说,美国经济前景将会更加明朗,这使得美联储能够坚持其激进的加息政策,从而提升美元的避险吸引力,另外美联储的加息速度相比其他主要央行更快,这支撑美元走强,市场避险资金在未来一段时间里,可能持续涌向美元,这将推动美元继续走强,从而使得黄金面临较大压力。
晚间公布的美国6月非农数据,由于此前公布的相关指标表现较差,市场预计失业率可能出现上升,新增就业人数可能出现下降,这可能为黄金的反弹提供机会。
Technical analysis of gold:
昨天黄金震荡上下窜,早盘先拉高回落,欧美盘先回落再新高后回落,整体形成了1737-1748的窄幅震荡,符合预期,对于当下的盘面来看,重点是晚上的非农数据,从基本面来看,非农预期是利好黄金,而技术面对应的美元来看,日线形成高位弱空,下方测试加速线这里破位回下线,这样对黄金也是一种支撑,另外直接看黄金,日图周三破加速线到达我们预期的32,昨天收十字,从系统来看,日图昨天没有50反而回防是一种反复的蓄势,因为指标已经超卖,不修正直接下跌空间有限,其次四小时在低位出现弱多反弹信号,现在看日内主要是反弹下线这里的压制,一旦四小时破高并收盘于下线上方,日内进一步反弹的概率的加大,这样黄金的四小时与美元的四小时正好形成一种反制,所以四小时没有出现二次弱转的情况下,直接破底的概率是0,收在下线上方看高一线,上方一线十字底,二加速线,三是日图的下线,所以只是看反弹,只有冲过日图下线才能确定底部,因此结论就是趋势看空,但是短期看反弹;
Gold currently4小时图短线走出一波单边的放量,同时也创出近期的最大单日跌幅,波动基数开始加大,K线形态则是大阴线下挫放量,小阳线反弹修正,反弹空间小,弱势修正的手法。金价触及1732低点转换小阳线再修正,目前已有两根小阳K线的修正,结合昨日的整理修正走法,接下来会转阴再惯性的摔低,故亚欧盘的反弹是一个空点,随着日线和4小时的放量,日内短线在摔低之后,低位的空单及时落袋,可能伴随反复的下探回升整理再蓄势下跌。综上所述指南金师总结:今日黄金操作上考虑反弹做空为主,上方关注1756-1762USD resistance, follow below1730-1720USD support
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