指南金师：黄金走势分析，美元高位震荡，澳联储加息在望

　　goldInterpretation of message surface;


　　昨日，恰逢美国假期，黄金波动较小，整体受到强势美元的压制，虽然全球央行的加息前景近期一直打压黄金价格，但目前市场对经济衰退的担忧持续升温，地缘局势担忧仍存，而且通胀预期高企，仍给黄金提供支撑。市场密切关注本周将出炉的美联储会议纪要和美6月非农就业报告，大多数对美联储大幅加息的预期都取决于经济状况，是否如美联储官员讲话中所预期的那样变化，换句话说，决定7月份加息幅度的是经济超出预期的方向和程度。目前普遍预计美失业率会上升，这种预期有望给金价提供反弹机会。


　　短期内美通胀仍然持续高位，同时美联储迫切需要压低通胀，这些因素，将会导致鲍威尔在面对通胀的时候，更为强硬，强硬的政策，未来一两个月会继续给黄金带来沉重压力。与此形成鲜明对比的是，近期价格走势显示，避险资金流入支撑了黄金，上周五价格的探底回升，更是很好的说明了这一点。目前来看，在出现重大利空或者重大利好前，短线黄金价格偏向维持震荡，因为目前位于近期震荡区间的底部位置，下方支撑较强，震荡反弹的可能性要略高一点。


Today's Key Financial Data and Events2022year7month5Day Tuesday


　　①09:45China6Yuecai New Service IndustryPMI


　　②12:30Federal Reserve of Australia Announces Interest Rate Decision


　　③14:45France5Monthly industrial output rate


　　④15:50France6Monthly service industryPMIFinal value


　　⑤15:55Germany6Monthly service industryPMIFinal value


　　⑥16:00eurozone6Monthly service industryPMIFinal value


⑦16:30britain6Monthly service industryPMI


⑧22:00U.S.A5Monthly factory order rate


Technical analysis of gold:


From the perspective of the gold daily structure, the gold first fluctuated and then rebounded within the day, but above1814The first line was blocked, and then the market fluctuated and retreated, while the low point in the European session retreated to1804On the first line, the overall trend is also in line with the expected volatility and digestion trend for the day. At present, the short-term market trend may not be easy to control, and the late US market closure will also make the market trading sentiment cautious, so the overall volatility will not be significant. Stay tuned above the evening gold5Daily line1812-14Short term pressure competition, although there were punctures within the day1812As5The pressure of daily and small cycle trend lines may still become a key point of contention in the evening. According to the daily structure, if we close today5Not too much on the daily line, but above1820Frontline action10The daily pressure and trend line pressure will still have a further suppressive effect, so short-term gold can be biased towards bearish, but do not expect too much space. Technically, the overall rebound is still weak, and the current rebound is only a technical oversold rebound, making it difficult to achieve a reversal.


At present, while both the bullish and bearish directions of the gold market may occur, it is recommended to focus on observing the current market situation and follow the trend direction before participating. The short-term trend structure should be clarified first, and the trend should still be bearish, meaning that bears have the main advantage. When the rebound is blocked and suppressed, the main rhythm direction is still bearish participation, rather than disrupting the rhythm direction due to short-term low rebound. Friday, althoughVType reversal, but never breaking the bearish trend line.4The mid hour orbit will stillKThe physical part of the line is pressed to death, and has not broken through the middle track multiple times, indicating the strong pressure. Breaking through is not a result of Asahi's efforts, and it will inevitably undergo the baptism of time. It is clearly not enough now. Now gold is at a critical watershed position, while4小时中轨压制金价，双重因素引导我一们继续看空黄金。在黄金没有转势的情况下，不要枉然抄底。综上所述指南金师总结：今日黄金操作上建议反弹做空为主，回踩做多为辅，上方短期关注1820-1825Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1797-1792Frontline support.


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