Guide Metallographer:7.5今日黄金走势分析，黄金短期需求减弱长期...

　　goldInterpretation of message surface;


Tuesday(7month5day)亚市盘初，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于1809.25dollar/盎司附近，上一交易日恰逢美国假期，金价波动较小，整体受到强势美元的压制，但目前市场对经济衰退的担忧持续升温，地缘局势担忧仍存，而且通胀预期高企，仍给金价提供支撑，市场密切关注本周将出炉的美联储会议纪要和美国6月非农就业报告，目前普遍预计美国失业率会上升，这种预期有望给金价提供反弹机会。


　　本交易日留意澳洲联储利率决议、美国5月耐用品订单月率修正值，关注美国5月工厂订单月率和欧美股市表现，对俄乌局势和全球猴痘病毒的相关消息也需要留意一下。


　　分析师：美国6月份失业率升幅可能超出预期


　　市场预计决策者将在7月末的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议上再加息75个基点。彭博经济研究认为加息步伐没有那么快。投资者需要仔细阅读近期美联储官员的讲话以及即将发布的6monthFOMCMeeting minutes(周三发布)可以看出，大多数对美联储大幅加息的预期都取决于经济状况如美联储官员讲话中所预期的那样变化。换句话说，决定7月份加息幅度的是经济超出预期的方向和程度。


　　而且，自6月会议以来，通胀和经济增长都弱于预期。ISM制造业指数的新订单和就业指数都在收缩，ISMService Industry Index(Wednesday)也极有可能出现快速降温。实际个人支出的下降超出预期。汽油和其他大宗商品价格下跌。6月份密歇根大学的长期通胀预期指标上升(一度令美联储非常震惊)，而在最终数据中，修后正预期指标的涨幅几乎尽数抹去。


　　未本周的焦点是劳动力市场。如果像彭博经济研究预期的那样，6月份非农就业报告(Friday)显示失业率上升至3.7%，那么决策者将再次感到意外。这意味着劳动力市场(通常是经济放缓的滞后指标)正在以比FOMC与会者预期更快的速度下滑(stay6月份美联储经济预测摘要中，点阵图中值显示，失业率到年底才达到3.7%)。5monthJOLTSreport(Wednesday)也可能显示每个失业人员对应的职位空缺数量下降。


Today's Key Financial Data and Events2022year7month5Day Tuesday


　　①09:45China6Yuecai New Service IndustryPMI


　　②12:30Federal Reserve of Australia Announces Interest Rate Decision


　　③14:45France5Monthly industrial output rate


　　④15:50France6Monthly service industryPMIFinal value


　　⑤15:55Germany6Monthly service industryPMIFinal value


　　⑥16:00eurozone6Monthly service industryPMIFinal value


⑦16:30britain6Monthly service industryPMI


⑧22:00U.S.A5Monthly factory order rate


Technical analysis of gold:


From the perspective of the gold daily structure, the gold first fluctuated and then rebounded within the day, but above1814The first line was blocked, and then the market fluctuated and retreated, while the low point in the European session retreated to1804On the first line, the overall trend is also in line with the expected volatility and digestion trend for the day. At present, the short-term market trend may not be easy to control, and the late US market closure will also make the market trading sentiment cautious, so the overall volatility will not be significant. Stay tuned above the evening gold5Daily line1812-14Short term pressure competition, although there were punctures within the day1812As5The pressure of daily and small cycle trend lines may still become a key point of contention in the evening. According to the daily structure, if we close today5Not too much on the daily line, but above1820Frontline action10The daily pressure and trend line pressure will still have a further suppressive effect, so short-term gold can be biased towards bearish, but do not expect too much space. Technically, the overall rebound is still weak, and the current rebound is only a technical oversold rebound, making it difficult to achieve a reversal.


At present, while both the bullish and bearish directions of the gold market may occur, it is recommended to focus on observing the current market situation and follow the trend direction before participating. The short-term trend structure should be clarified first, and the trend should still be bearish, meaning that bears have the main advantage. When the rebound is blocked and suppressed, the main rhythm direction is still bearish participation, rather than disrupting the rhythm direction due to short-term low rebound. Friday, althoughVType reversal, but never breaking the bearish trend line.4The mid hour orbit will stillKThe physical part of the line is pressed to death, and has not broken through the middle track multiple times, indicating the strong pressure. Breaking through is not a result of Asahi's efforts, and it will inevitably undergo the baptism of time. It is clearly not enough now. Now gold is at a critical watershed position, while4小时中轨压制金价，双重因素引导我一们继续看空黄金。在黄金没有转势的情况下，不要枉然抄底。综上所述指南金师总结：今日黄金操作上建议反弹做空为主，回踩做多为辅，上方短期关注1820-1825Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1797-1792Frontline support.


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