Guide Metallographer:7.4今日黄金走势分析，黄金大起大落

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Monday(7month4day)亚市盘初，现货黄金窄幅震荡，目前交投于1810.13dollar/盎司附近，上周美元指数上涨，再度逼近近二十年高点，欧元区6月通胀再创新高加大了欧洲央行大幅加息预期，印度将黄金基本进口税从7.5%Increase to12.5%，令金价一度跌创近五个月新低至1784.39dollar/盎司附近。但随后金价快速反弹，一方面是美元从高位小幅回落，另一方面是逢低买盘和避险买盘支撑金价，此外，临近假期，部分空头获利了结。


　　受到欧洲央行大幅加息预期升温的影响，更主要的是，美国ISMmanufacturingPMI等一些列经济数据表现较差，市场对美联储激进加息的预期略微有所降温，美元的多头持仓下降，这给黄金多头提供信心，本周将迎来美国6月份非农就业报告，目前市场预期并不是很乐观，美元指数短线见顶的风险有所增加，这种预期有望给金价提供反弹机会。而且全球经济衰退风险，也可能会限制金价的下跌空间。


　　周一恰逢美国独立日假期，美国纽交所休市，CME旗下贵金属、美国crude oil合约交易提前于北京时间次日02:30结束，市场整体交投可能会受到一些限制。


　　基本面主要利空


　　【印度提高黄金进口税】


　　印度政府上周五表示，印度已将黄金的基本进口税从7.5%Increase to12.5%，这个全球第二大黄金消费国试图抑制黄金需求并降低贸易逆差。


　　当地金价上周五跳涨至每10gram52,032印度卢比，为4month25The highest ever.


　　印度通过进口来满足其大部分的黄金需求。这给印度卢比INR=IN带来了压力，印度卢比在上周五早些时候创下历史新低。


　　上调关税应能提升价格并缓和国内需求，这可能会令全球金价承压。但业内人士表示，这可能会刺激黑市交易，并推动黄金走私进入印度。


　　印度5月贸易逆差从一年前的65.3亿美元扩大到242.9亿美元，当月的黄金进口从一年前的6.78亿美元猛增到60USD100mn


　　印度黄金珠宝协会(IBJA)person in chargeSurendra Mehta说，短期内黄金需求可能会下降，但从长远来看，需求将保持强劲，进口将出现反弹。


　　在宣布增税后，印度黄金价格上涨了约3%，而全球价格一度下降了1%。


Technical analysis of gold:


　　上周黄金白银整体是持续单边震荡下行的行情，而且本周最关键的是下破了1802Support. And it's breaking down1802Afterwards, there was an accelerated sell-off trend, and in the end1784Here we gain support. Although there has been a volatile rebound, the overall structure is still bearish. Even if there is a rebound next week, the overall expectation is to see further fluctuations7month7The low point will only occur around the th, and there will be a significant rebound in the market afterwards. Therefore, structurally speaking, the overall trend is still mainly bearish, but7month7After the 11th, there may be a retaliatory rebound in the market through non agricultural activities. Also, it's important to focus on1780If we break the position, we will further see a bearish outlook1750And1720Support. And in the future, the overall focus will be on1858Breaking through the pressure is the key core, but I am bearish in the future1750Nearby, short-term, gold1The morning star form at the bottom of the hour level. Overall, the guidelines for gold operations today suggest that the main focus should be on rebounding from high altitudes, supplemented by stepping back on low altitudes, with short-term attention from above1820-1825Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1800-1795Frontline support.


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