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goldMessage interpretation:
按照美国核心消费者指数(PCE)报告,能看到通胀仍处于较高水平。黄金乐观情绪昙花一现,通胀继续以创纪录的速度上升,只能略微缓解。对此技术分析观点认为,目前金价恐怕将会持续承压,1798美元将是关键支撑。
美联储首选的通胀报告,个人消费支出价格指数今天发布。通过PCE看到的5月份通胀同比增长6.3%, and4月份的通胀压力持平。
继4Monthly increase0.2%After,5monthPCEIndex rise0.6%。然而,核心PCE指数创下2021year11月以来的最低增幅。报告显示,5Monthly CorePCE同比下降至4.7%Compared to4Of the month4.9%略有下降。
According toKitco特约分析师Gary Wagner表示,最初的下意识反应使黄金在接下来的15分钟内从美国东部时间上午8Hour30分的1803美元,升至1825美元。最活跃的2022year8monthfutures合约在上午9时以盘中高点1826.80美元交易。
ForPCE通胀报告的初步反应,为黄金创造看涨的市场情绪,因为人们认为该报告将在美联储FOMC同意其7月会议时,减少下一次加息的规模。
但“这种乐观情绪充其量只是昙花一现”,因为1hour45分钟后,黄金期货跌至1805.10美元。截至下午5Hour05分,美国东部时间黄金期货在考虑到今天的价格下跌9.50USD or0.52%后,目前固定在1808USD.
今天的价格下跌,导致黄金跌破由一系列更高低点形成的支撑趋势线。用于创建该趋势线的第一个低点出现在5month16日,当时黄金交易至1785.30美元的低点。使用的第二个低点是基于6month14Daily low point1806.60USD.
如果黄金继续承压,第一水平的潜在支撑位在1798美元,这是基于5month13日的低点。
“然而,我们使用每周烛台的长期研究表明,30日的价格下跌落在当前支撑趋势线上方的参数范围内,该支撑趋势线也是从两个更高的低点创建的。使用的第一个低点为1678美元,发生在2021year4月中旬。使用的第二个低点发生在5月的第二周,为1785美元。当前的低点,仍高于该趋势线,”Gary WagnerSay.
Technical analysis of gold:
近期黄金的价格下跌趋势很明显,但是就是难以下去,这个过程很煎熬。周三欧美盘,黄金价格大涨后大跌,收线在1820下方,以阴十字星收尾。对于日线周期,或者说是近期的大趋势而言,依旧是震荡看空不变,但是对于日内短线来说,震荡反弹调整信号不明显,所以今天黄金短线以18阻力看下调,下方预计看1800附近区间,指南金师总结:近期黄金没有什么好说的,大趋势坚持空头,短线也许有反弹,但要区分反弹调整走势还是反转走势,目前这个阶段,黄金日线没有收线站稳1850上方,都不算是反转行情,所以短期反弹空即可。综合来看,黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议以反弹高空为主辅,上方短期关注1825-1830Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1795-1790Frontline support.
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