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goldMessage interpretation:
Thursday(6month30day)进入欧市盘中,市场情绪不佳,股市承压下滑,全球主要央行发布通胀警告,加剧了市场对激进政策将以经济衰退告终的担忧。美元高位坚挺,黄金则小幅走低,正迈向5个季度来最差表现。本交易日来看,市场将重点关注美国PCE物价指数,这是美联储青睐的通胀指标。
周四,黄金市场基本平静,但面临着自2021年初以来最糟糕的一个季度,因为美元的出色表现令投资者望而却步,主要央行采取激进策略应对顽固的通胀,令黄金前景蒙上阴影。
现货金日内走势不振,金价刷新三周低点至1811美元附近,日内波动幅度在10美元左右,此前已经连续三个交易日收跌。
目前预计金价将连续第三个月下跌,本季度已下跌约6.2%。
City IndexSenior Market AnalystMatt Simpson说,收益率上升和美元走高是金价表现不佳的原因之一,但他指出,以其他货币计价的黄金表现并不太糟糕。
美元在最近20年高点附近徘徊,并有可能录得五年多来最佳季度表现,对于持有其他货币的买家来说,这使得黄金变得更加昂贵。
世界主要央行行长周三表示,降低全球范围内的高通胀将是痛苦的,甚至可能会拖累经济增长,但必须迅速采取行动,以防止价格快速增长的局面变得根深蒂固。
美联储主席鲍威尔在欧洲央行论坛称,美国经济实际上处于非常强劲的状态,有很好条件来应对政策紧缩,不过实现通胀目标的过程可能带来痛苦。
鲍威尔认为,收紧货币政策的同时避免经济陷入衰退仍然是可能的,不过软着陆的路径正在收窄。但他同时强调,相比经济衰退担忧,美联储的首要任务是打压通胀,现在已经没有缓慢加息的空间了。分析认为,鲍威尔的表述是为了阻止市场的通胀预期继续上涨,并帮助投资者预判未来的加息路径。
欧洲央行行长拉加德表示,低通胀时代已经一去不复返了,欧洲央行必须行动起来,“新冠大流行和当前的大规模地缘政治冲击释放出的力量,将会改变我们行动的背景格局。”
“未来可能出现必须加大力度的情况,”英国央行行长贝利在会议上表示,下一次可能还不会加息50个基点,但可能性已经摆在了台面上。不过,贝利同时警告称,英国经济明显已经到了一个转折点,经济增速开始放缓。
Analysis of Gold Technology;
日线上,隔日黄金承压于MA10日均线展开下跌,盘中录得带长上影线的小阴,日线上,今日行情开盘继续承压均线下行,日内保持看跌;4小时上,隔日黄金承压于中轨下方运行,晚间一度刺破后回落,当前布林带处于开口期,MA均线走出死叉三线向下,KDJThree lines of random indicators converge downwards,MACD指标绿色动能柱持续放量,快慢线死叉向下。综合来看,黄金目前有测试千八可能。黄金操作思路上指南金师建议以反弹高空为主,回调低多为辅,上方重点关注1825-1830Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1800Frontline support.
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