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ATFX:加拿大央行激进的加息措施,或许会导致经济衰退

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ATFX:加拿大央行激进的加息措施,或许会导致经济衰退38 / author:atfx2019 / PostsID:1700304

Economic aspect:
CanadaGDP总额为1.644万亿美元,比意大利低,比澳大利亚高,整体处于西方国家的中等水平。其最新失业率为5.1%,高于充分就业水平5%,表明有一部分劳动力仍处于闲置状态。政府债务占GDP比重为117.8%,远高于国际公认警戒线60%,随着国债利率的升高,有可能出现债务危机。加拿大人口只有3844万人,不足1亿,而国家领土近100万平方公里,面积仅次于俄罗斯,是全世界领土第二大的国家,可谓地广人稀。从2019年开始,加拿大就一直处于贸易逆差状态,仅在2021年疫情期间实现了0.1%的贸易顺差,核心原因是严格的疫情管制措施导致商品无法顺利出口。长时间的贸易逆差会消耗加拿大央行的foreign exchange储备,不过这部分消耗会因为资本账户的流入而抵消。

加拿大统计局公布数据显示,5monthCPIThe year-on-year growth rate is7.7%, higher than the previous value6.8%, creating near39年新高。高通胀的驱动因素与美国基本相同——高油价、高粮食价格、芯片荒。自今年以来,拿大央行已经加息三次,幅度分别为25Base point50Base point50Base point, latest benchmark interest rate1.5%The intention to accelerate austerity is very clear. Bank of Canada Governor McLean recently stated in his speech that interest rates will be raised to3%The above possibilities increase. According to each interest rate increase50The calculation of the range of basis points is expected to reach McLehm's regulatory target level after three more interest rate decisions.

货币紧缩政策能够在一定程度上遏制高通胀,但同样也会造成经济衰退,各国银行要做到的是:一边加息遏制通胀,一边观察失业率数据。如果失业率数据快速上升,就必须停止激进加息,避免经济陷入衰退。加拿大的失业率在5.1%,本就不健康,此时跟随美国同步加息,极有可能将经济拖入衰退的深渊。除失业率外,还需要关注政府债务占GDP比重这一指标,如果该值大于100%,同样不适合快速提高利率,因为这有可能引发政府债务危机。

我们一直持有一种观点:失业率高于5%的国家,不应紧缩货币政策,尤其是不应当短时间频繁加息,因为这会导致宏观经济出现衰退。当然,我们也理解,面对屡创新高的CPI增速数据和民众的抱怨,加拿大央行不得不采取紧缩货币政策以遏制通胀。经济规律不可违背,激进的货币政策或许会在一定程度上遏制物价,但是,我们认为,除英国、美国、德国外的其它西方国家,大概率将会在明年上半年出现经济衰退。

Trading face:
USDCAD前景不明,因为美国和加拿大的国债收益率都在升高,很难判断哪个货币升值更快。CADJPY中长期维持看多观点,因为日本一直维持超级宽松的货币政策,导致日元具有贬值属性。加拿大央行的加息政策又与日本央行的宽松政策形成背离,同样有利于CADJPY走强。

ATFXAnalyst team concise viewpoint:CADJPY,大概率多头延续。

*Risk Tips and Disclaimers*
There are risks in the market and investment should be cautious. The above contents only represent the views of analysts and do not constitute any operational recommendations.

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