Guide Metallographer:6.29今日黄金走势分析，金价罗生门，多空博弈

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　昨日美联储三号人物任内拥有永久FOMC投票权的纽约联储主席威廉姆斯发表讲话，称即使大幅加息控制通胀，美国也可能避免经济衰退。威廉姆斯预计今年美国GDP增速可能降至约1%to1.5%，远低于去年的5.7%。但他指出，“那不是衰退。那是我们需要看到为真正减少通胀压力而有的经济放缓，我们已经也将要降低通胀。”


　　威廉姆斯称，美联储的政策利率——联邦基金利率可能要从目前的1.5%to1.75%Ascend to3%to3.5%。在利率方面，“我们远未达到需要的水平”。威廉姆斯提到，美联储官员显然会在7月的下次货币政策会议上讨论是加息50个基点还是加75个基点，决策要视经济数据而定。“我的观点是，我们必须让利率更高，必须迅速那样行动。”除了加息，美联储从6月起开始缩减资产负债表规模，最初每个月最多减少300亿美元美国国债和175亿美元机构抵押支持证券，三个月后月度减持最高规模提升一倍。威廉姆斯说，我没有看到任何缩表相关的恐慌迹象，市场目前良好地发挥功能。威廉姆斯昨日在发表鹰派观点的同时有意淡化市场对美国经济衰退的担忧，受此影响黄金小幅下跌。


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金周二波动不大，一直保持在1830/1818震荡，没有太大的空间，基本走势是亚欧盘上涨，美盘下跌，不过前期的低点1816一直没有破位，因此，空头有心而无力。由于波动不大，整体技术面保持不变，黄金依旧在三角震荡区间内不变，技术面也暂时维持之前的看法。值得注意的是，日线还是维持自布林中轨之下，暂时黄金还是弱势表现，周三黄金不破中轨，也难以大涨，破位中轨压制再说扩大上方空间。而H4周期布林收口，虽然周二弱势，但均线暂时没有形成严格的单边，因此，日内黄金在1816的双支撑下，可能会走出有力的反弹空间，上方关注1828，1834High point.


　　黄金日线级别的走势比较弱，保持着持续低位震荡的态势，而逐渐下移的高点使得震荡区间不断在压缩，整体走势没有像样的反弹。日线布林中轨在K线上方形成强有力的压制，价格很难得到有效反弹，向下试探1800一线只是时间问题。4小时，布林带开口向下，价格呈阶梯式下行走势，昨日小幅反弹至中轨附近遇阻下行，再度走出新的低点。综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议以反弹高空为主，回调低多为辅，上方重点关注1835-1840Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1810-1805Frontline support.


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