Guide Metallographer:6.29今日黄金走势分析，加息遇上避险

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Yesterday(6month28day)，旧金山联储主席戴利在讲话中表示，劳动力市场目前非常强劲，这让美国在实现软着陆方面处于更有利的位置。预计美国的经济增长将会放缓，也许会低于2%，但不会是负增长。纽约联储主席威廉姆斯称，衰退不是他的基本预期。美国长期中性利率没有改变，仍然很低。这就是美联储今年、明年需要大幅加息的原因之一。联邦基金利率达到3.5%-4%是合理的，但下次会议是加息50A basis point or75个基点还需讨论。他还表示，今年肯定需要把利率提高到3%-3.5%。受美联储官员们鹰派言论的影响，金价反弹乏力，昨日最高上探至1829.3一线后，随后受阻回落，盘中跌破重要支撑位1820，最低下挫至1818附近，目前金价维持在1820附近盘整。


　　美国财政部周二在其网站上公告，美国发布了新一轮与俄罗斯有关的制裁措施，包括禁止进口俄罗斯黄金，并将矛头指向俄罗斯国有国防集团，以及包括莫斯科银行在内的多家银行。地缘局势的升温，给金价提供了支撑。今日重点关注晚间21:00美联储主席鲍威尔、欧洲央行行长以及英国央行行长的讲话，另外还需关注北约峰会的讨论内容。


Technical analysis of gold:


　　从盘面来看，黄金昨日小阴线震荡收低，短线反弹1829.60附近承压阴跌。如昨日日评预期，日线处于下行通道中运行走弱，短线节奏稍慢，但整体呈现震荡下跌当中。日线连续的小阴十字K线收盘，也在反复测试低位。均线指标已开始拐头向下形成压制。不过要想放量下挫，还需要一定消息面的刺激，技术结构震荡为前，下跌为后。


Currently4小时处于小级别下行通道中运行，此前在1847and1840处三次承压下跌，目前在逼近低点，反复的伴随冲高回落蓄势洗盘收低，短线走弱，昨日反弹在布林道中轨附近承压下行，日内短线继续在中轨之下看短线空头回落，经过整理后的，短线可能会稍有放量，进一步下探会到1800At the integer checkpoint.1小时图依托1840.50做强弱临界点的下行台阶，昨日反弹在1829.60处承压，高点再下移。综合来看，上方关注1830-1837Follow below1807-1800。


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