Guide Metallographer:6.28Today's gold trend analysis, gold should first look at fluctuations to suppress decline

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Tuesday(6month28day)The international gold price has slightly increased due to the weakening of US bond yields and the US dollar. However, the market expects the correlation between the Federal Reserve's policy shift and the probability of economic recession to be smaller than before. In the absence of new catalysts to drive market trends, the gold market will maintain range fluctuations in the short term. U.S.A10The yield of one-year treasury bond fell slightly after rising overnight, boosting the demand for non yield asset gold. The gold price opened high on the previous trading day and then fell, ending in a decline. Due to the depletion of Russian exports to the West, the ban on importing gold from Russia by the UK, US, Japan, and Canada is only symbolic.


The ban on gold imports from Russia by the Group of Seven is not expected to affect gold trading, asLBMAThe ban has cut off Russia's new production in the major markets of the Group of Seven, and the reversal of price trends reflects a slight impact on gold. Russian government Monday(6month27day)In a statement, Russia stated that it does not accept the fact that it has defaulted on its foreign debt due to Russia's gold andforeign exchangeThe reserves are illegally blocked. Russia in5Paid the coupon rate of the Eurobond in month, and the European Bank Clearing House(Euroclear)Not accepting Russian euro bond trading is not our problem.


"Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russian assets have been banned on a large scale, soG7It is irrelevant whether to confirm the ban on gold, as this keeps gold in a volatile mode Gold investors have sensed the potential stagflation consequences associated with slowing economic growth but lingering inflation, and should also consider that central banks facing credit crises may continue to raise interest rates for a longer period of time. In this situation, it is expected that the correlation between the Federal Reserve's shift and the probability of recession will be smaller than before. The US economy is expected to grow in the second quarter0.3%, higher than6month16Daily predicted0%。 The Atlanta Federal Reserve wrote in its report: "After the recent release of data by the Federal Reserve Board, the National Association of Real Estate Agents, and the United States Census Bureau, the actual growth of private domestic investment in the second quarter increased from-9.0%Ascend to-8.1%。”


Technical analysis of gold:


Gold rebounded last week and resumed its recovery after pressure testing, confirming the current weak state of the market. Today, we will pay attention to it first1820Competition, but as time passes, the probability of this position falling will also increase. Once it falls, you can pay more attention below1812-10Competition, even under the influence of extreme emotions, the market may retreat to1805-00The possibility of finding support in the area. Stay tuned above in the evening1830-33Short term pressure band, if the market wants to reverse today, stand up1830The above is a technical requirement, but even if one stands firm1830Above, there may not be strong rebound momentum in the short term, as the current fundamentals are relatively light, and the impact on the US dollar trend in the short term should be particularly concerned.


Although gold is today1822The position has gained support and rebounded, but the rebound strength is insufficient, which is different from the previous strong rebound. It also indicates that the bull strength is starting to decline, and the decline is about to start. Once the level breaks, the market will directly fall to1815even to the extent that1800Location. After adjusting for the gold shock, we have chosen our direction again. Although the current market volatility is not significant, it is already the calm before the storm. The storm is about to strike, so we will continue to hold short and wait for the market to break through and decline! In summary, the guide for gold today's operation is summarized by the gold expert. The gold expert suggests that the main focus should be on rebounding from high altitudes, with more rebounding from low altitudes as a supplement, and short-term attention should be paid to the top1840-1845Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1820-1815Frontline support.


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