Guide Metallographer:6.27今日黄金走势分析，加息预期降温

　　goldMessage interpretation:


　　在美国、加拿大、英国和日本禁止新的俄罗斯黄金进口后，黄金价格27日仍维持1830美元正等待突破。随着投资者等待美国耐用品订单数据，预计贵金属将出现决定性走势。根据市场共识，该数据预计将从之前的0.5%，下滑至0.1%。


　　由于俄罗斯持续入侵乌克兰，代表世界主要经济体的七国集团(G7)成员正在增加对俄罗斯的制裁。周日在G7会议上，美国、英国、日本和加拿大宣布将禁止进口俄罗斯生产的新黄金。最新消息对金价影响不大，8monthCOMEXgoldfutures在大致中性区域开始新的交易周。


　　宣布后，美国总统拜登表示，新的黄金禁令将剥夺俄罗斯数百亿美元，这个贱民国家需要为其在乌克兰的战争提供资金。俄罗斯是世界第二大黄金生产国，占全球供应量的9.5%。去年俄罗斯的黄金出口价值超过150亿美元。新制裁可能对伦敦黄金市场产生最大影响，据彭博社报道，28%的俄罗斯黄金出口到伦敦。


　　英国首相约翰逊表示，该禁令将对俄罗斯经济产生重大影响。他在声明中说道：“我们今天宣布的措施将直接打击俄罗斯寡头，并打击普京战争机器的核心。普京将他日益减少的资源浪费在这场毫无意义和野蛮的战争上，他以牺牲乌克兰和俄罗斯人民为代价为他的自我提供资金。”


　　他继续强调：“我们需要让普京政权的资金匮乏。英国和我们的盟友正在这样做。”


　　然而，一些分析人士对最新制裁对俄罗斯的影响表示怀疑。G7宣布这一消息，是在该行业采取自己的措施阻止俄罗斯黄金进入市场几个月后发布的。


Right here3月初，就在俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之后，伦敦金银市场协会将6家俄罗斯炼油厂从合格交割名单中禁止。当时LBMA指出，由于俄罗斯的黄金生产主要是国内生产，因此预计该禁令不会对全球黄金市场产生重大影响。


　　官方对俄罗斯黄金的禁令可能会对市场产生更大的影响，德固赛首席经济学家Thorsten Polleit表示，实物金属的下跌可能会导致纸市出现问题。


　　虽然大多数黄金期货合约都以美元结算，但地缘政治不确定性和市场波动性的增加正在创造对实物黄金的强劲需求。其他分析人士指出，新制裁仅适用于G7国家。两个最大的黄金消费国：中国和印度，可以继续购买俄罗斯的贵金属，两国都对俄罗斯表示同情。


　　Agora FinancialeditByron King最近在接受Kitco News采访时表示，随着石油和食品成本持续上涨，西方国家对俄罗斯实施的制裁可能适得其反。他补充说，将美国武器化美元兑俄罗斯可能对美国产生重大影响经济。


　　“武器的问题在于它们注定要被摧毁，你发射子弹、发射火箭或爆炸炸弹，这些武器一旦使用就会被摧毁。当你将美元武器化时，你就有炸毁你的货币的风险。”他表示，预计黄金价格将继续上涨，并建议投资者在其投资组合中持有一些实物作为避险资产和通胀对冲。


　　在美国经济数据方面，预计经济数据的大幅下滑将支撑金价未来。经济数据与美国经济的总需求有着适当的关系，较高的耐用品订单表明家庭的需求具有弹性。对经济数据的较低估计可能是通胀飙升的结果，这损害了家庭的薪水，从而损害了对耐用品的需求。


　　值得注意的是，美国经济报告悲观的采购经理人指数(PMI)数据。制造业和服务业采购经理人指数，这两个方面都表现出脆弱的表现。因此，在脆弱的PMI之后对耐用品订单的悲观估计，可能会严重损害美元指数。上周美元指数依然低迷，预计在经济数据持续低迷的情况下表现疲软。


Today's Focus:


　　20:30U.S.A5Monthly rate of durable goods orders


　　22:00U.S.A5Monthly rate of contracted sales index for completed housing


　　22:30U.S.A6Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for the Month


The next day01:30European Central Bank President Lagarde delivers a speech


Technical analysis of gold:


The daily level fluctuates and falls;KDJSlightly dead fork,MACDGlued but with green bars appearing, the moving average starts to be bearish, and the short-term gold price tends to fluctuate downward, initially supporting the Bollinger Line's lower track1814.56Nearby, if the support falls below this level, the gold price may initiate a new round of decline, further supporting the1800Stronger support near integer levels5Monthly low point1786.70Nearby. In addition,6month14Daily low point1804.98There may also be some support nearby. Given that the current gold price is still in a volatile trend, it is necessary to pay attention to the support of bargain hunting,5Daily moving average and10The daily moving average resistance is currently at1831.50Nearby,200The resistance of the daily moving average and the Bollinger line in the middle track1844.60Nearby, if the position can be recovered, increase the short-term bullish signal; Further resistance in1850Near the integer level, and then6month16Resistance to daily highs1857.39Nearby. From a broader perspective, gold prices are1821.72USD to1847.95The USD range fluctuates up and down.20Period and50Moving Average of Futures IndexEMALocated at1828.30USD and1831.58The US dollar is declining, which strengthens the downward trend. Meanwhile, Relative strength indexRSI（14）Showing signs of losing downward momentum. Momentum oscillation index40.00水平附近获得支撑。综上所述，黄金周一操作思路上指南金师建议反弹高空为主，回调低多为辅，上方重点关注1838-1843Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1808-1813Frontline support.


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