Guide Metallographer:6.23今日黄金走势分析，日内震荡区间对待即可！

　　goldMessage interpretation:

　　美联储主席鲍威尔表示，持续加息是适当的，需加快加息步伐，不排除任何加息幅度(include100BP)；政策利率仍处于相对较低的水平，希望其上升到更“中性”的水平；存在经济衰退的可能性，但是美联储没有试图引发经济衰退，美联储坚决承诺将通胀恢复到2%；美联储对解决油价问题无能为力。经济非常强劲，可以应对紧缩政策；旨在不造成衰退的情况下降低通胀；相比其他国家，需求是引发美国通胀的更大因素；正试图降低需求增长。

　　美联储官员埃文斯表示，“可能”美联储可以在不导致衰退的情况下减缓增长；面临的挑战将是导致经济下滑的另一场冲击。必须消除通胀压力；我们不能对经济的反应进行“微调”。没有必要像1995年那样将利率推高至6%；当时的通货膨胀率高得多。美联储政策制定者对未来利率走势达成了“巨大共识”，强烈认为有必要将利率设定在适度的限制性水平上。7Monthly interest rate increase75个基点将符合对通胀没有放缓的持续担忧。认为没有必要加息100个基点。也许数据出来后会表明7月会议可以加息50个基点。未来几个月需要“大幅”加息。我自己的观点与预期大致一致，2022年年底政策利率为3.25%-3.5%，2023年底前达到3.8%。通胀的坏消息是6月份支持75个基点加息的一个重要因素。

　　美联储官员哈克表示，有迹象表明经济形势正在降温，这正是我们想要的。看到需求有所放缓的迹象，并以房地产为例。应该将利率维持在3%以上，然后根据数据选择暂停加息与否。希望年底利率超过3%。

　　美联储官员巴尔金表示，预计随着利率上升，需求压力将减轻。

The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustPosition decrease compared to the previous day2.03Tons, current position is1071.77Tons.

According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is4.3%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is95.7%； reach9Monthly cumulative interest rate increase50、75The probability of each basis point is0%Accumulated interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is2.3%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is53.7%Accumulated interest rate increase150The probability of a basis point is44.0%。

Today's Focus:

　　15:15 France6Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value

　　15:30 Germany6Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value

　　16:00 eurozone6Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value

　　16:00 欧洲央行公布经济公报

　　16:30 britain6Monthly manufacturing and service industryPMI

　　18:00 britain6monthCBIRetail sales difference

　　20:30 From the United States to6month18Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week

　　20:30 美国第一季度经常帐

　　21:45 U.S.A6monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value

　　21:45 U.S.A6monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value

　　22:00 美联储主席鲍威尔做证词陈述

Technical analysis of gold:

Yesterday's low rebound of gold did not change the volatility, and the daily line followed a downward trend to recover and close positive. The overall operation is still within the range, with no obvious signs of unilateral breakthroughs. In the short term, it will still fall into a repeated tug of war, but temporarily in a downward trend of consolidation and correction. In terms of technical structure, the daily line is still fluctuating and slightly downward, but the short term is circuitous and repetitive.4After a negative drop of hours earlier, the single positive rose rapidly yesterday, but the closing was still unstable. The next day, there was still a slight rebound in the opening and a return to the east1836Oscillating operation below, rebound not closing high, lack of continuity, combined withKThe line structure and back and forth sawing are the main style, not the beginning of unilateral direction. In the short term, it may continue to maintain this wide range of oscillation sawing, with operations mainly focused on ultra short lines. The interval checkpoint is crucial. In summary, the guidelines for today's operation of gold suggest that the gold industry should focus on rebounding from high altitudes, supplemented by a pullback from low altitudes, with a focus on the above1848-1853Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1815-1820Frontline support.

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