Guo Shengshan:6.22Accurate trend analysis of evening gold and exclusive operation suggestions for crude oil

goldLatest market analysis:

Analysis of Gold News: Wednesday(6month22day)In the early morning trading of the Asian market, spot gold suddenly plunged, causing the gold price to fall below1830dollar/Ounces, US dollar index is currently showing an upward trend, current report104.60Nearby. The strengthening of the US dollar has put pressure on gold prices. In addition, the United States10The yield of one-year treasury bond bonds rose more than1%This has reduced the attractiveness of gold, while earlier this month the Federal Reserve conducted a self1994The largest interest rate hike since the beginning of the year is expected to occur by the Federal Reserve7We will continue to raise interest rates significantly in the month. Last week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates75After a few basis points, gold rebounded strongly for a while and then remained stable. In addition, analysts point out that in a bearish market region of the stock market, the returns provided by gold are more attractive and less correlated than other traditional safe haven assets. At present, these factors have prevented large-scale unwinding events for gold, but proprietary traders continue to hold a large number of speculative long positions in gold that may be complacent. In the end, under the heavy pressure of the hawkish Federal Reserve, there is still a downward bias. The Federal Reserve has officially raised interest rates this month75Bps to1.50-1.75%。 It is worth noting the guidance for the upcoming monetary policy. In addition, Powell5Interest rate hike announced at the monthly monetary policy meeting75A basis point is not within the scope of consideration. Nevertheless, Powell went beyond his statement and made a significant interest rate hike. It is important to understand the choice of raising interest rates75The concept behind the basis point. The actions of central banks are generally in line with those of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England, with the former hoping to raise interest rates soon50One basis point, while the latter hopes to increase tightening efforts. Guo Shengshan believes that investors can currently wait for key congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which may provide important guidance on the trend of gold prices on this trading day.

Technical analysis of gold: Gold fluctuated slightly yesterday and ended down, falling into a narrow horizontal range for a long time. During the US market period, it was first drawn back1843.3Under pressure on the first line, the tail end fell and closed at a low level1830Below, the space is still not moving much, but structurally it is still in the process of downward oscillation and decline. As the rebound strength weakens, the short line approaches the low point of the downward trajectory, but the rhythm is relatively slow and there is no obvious unilateral movement, presenting as a weak oscillation.4Hours have been trading sideways for two consecutive days this week without any signs of reaching a high, as they fell behind yesterday1830The low point indicates that the short term is unable to further touch the high and upward trend, but instead weakens and returns to the east after consolidation. Currently4The hour structure broke through the previous upward trend line of rebound, and the reverse weak trend fell back, reaching yesterday's high point1843.30To defend, let's take a look at the market today and see if it will fall. It is expected that the market will be weak and the white market will first lower.1The hour chart shows slight passivation. Accompanied by a consolidation style decline, but the space has not been released. After a long period of horizontal consolidation, the short-term rhythm is still oscillatory, and the direction is in a downward trend. After yesterday's high and low, the short-term trend will weaken first. Short term bearish. Overall, in terms of the short-term operation strategy for gold today, Guo Shengshan suggests focusing on rebounding from high altitude, supplemented by going long by stepping back, with short-term attention from above1840-1845Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1818-1813Frontline support.

　　crude oilLatest market analysis:

Analysis of crude oil news: Wednesday（6month22During the Asian period, US crude oil fell nearly2%Current report108.07dollar/Bucket, International Energy Forum（IEF）He said that global oil investment will stagnate this year, and may even decline, as producers respond to the soaring inflation and price fluctuations caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Due to the uncertainty of supply security stimulating the market, oil prices have increased2The price has risen since the start of military operations in January. meanwhile,OPEC+Delayed action in increasing production, and some member countries are also working hard to restore production amidst political protests. In addition, the rising cost of energy projects and supply chain issues have increased the difficulty of purchasing equipment, which may inhibit (energy) investment. according toIEFThe data shows that the investment will be below for the third consecutive year2019Of4410Billion US dollars, endangering future energy security.IEFLast year, it was stated that to meet the global demand for crude oil and petroleum products, annual investment needs to be maintained at5250About 100 million US dollars until2030Year. Germany, which holds the presidency of the Group of Seven, told the United States and other allies later this month at the G20 Leaders' Summit hosted by it that Germany does not explicitly oppose the proposal to limit the price of Russian oil, but cautions that linking the oil price ceiling to transportation insurance sanctions will be a very complex issue. The Group of Seven is engaged in intense discussions on this proposal, and it is understood that the United States plans to revise the sanctions imposed by the European Union earlier this month prohibiting insurance services for Russian oil transportation. However, the EU's sanctions measures require unanimous agreement from member states, and the latest Russian sanctions measures have taken several weeks to address opposition from the Hungarian leadership. Some member states have reservations about immediately initiating new sanctions work. Overall, despite persistent geopolitical tensions and strong demand supporting oil prices, the US's Russian oil price limit measures may be difficult to implement, andOPEC+May be in8Monthly production increases drag down oil prices, and short-term oil prices may fluctuate and become bearish.

Technical analysis of crude oil: In recent trading days, crude oil has been talking about continuing to decline after rebounding and repairing on the daily line. Currently, it continues to be in a trend of fluctuating and weakening on the daily trend. The continuous small rebound in the daily trend has basically completed the repair in technical form, and crude oil has room for a second downward trend. stayH4In terms of level trendKThe price has fallen below the short-term moving average and returned to its previous volatile range, with the current trend continuing to be weaker. According to the current trend, crude oil will continue to be weak and see a wave of bearish declines for the time being. It is obvious that the daily line did not continue its strong position after closing at a low level and was suppressed below the unilateral moving average, resulting in a weak performance. If the daily line opens up the Bollinger decline, the downside space will open up. The temporarily predictable points areH4Cycle, the low point of the previous decline is106.3，H4The low point of104.8So, with this as the target for intraday bearish sentiment, pay attention to106.3，104.8The gains and losses. Focus on the high point of short selling with the trend109，110At two points, it is expected that the European market will rebound to a high point, and trading can be carried out if the performance of the suppressed points is effective, and the US market will step out of the trend space. In summary, after a continuous decline in crude oil, Guo Shengshan suggests that crude oil operations today should mainly rebound from high altitudes, supplemented by retracement from low altitudes, with short-term attention from above108.2-108.7Frontline resistance, short-term focus below104.0-103.5Frontline support.

Author/Guo Sheng Shirt

My Interpretation of World Economic News,Analyzing the Global Investment Trends,Has in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, silver, etc,Guo Shengshan, Technical Director, provides an online solution,Loss recovery,One on one real-time guidance due to network push latency,The above content is personal suggestion,Due to the timeliness of online publications,For reference only,At one's own risk,Please indicate the source for reprinting.