Guo Shengshan:6.20Evening gold trend analysis and crude oil operation suggestions

LatestgoldMarket trend analysis

Federal ReserveFOMCpublish6月利率决议，和市场预期一致加息75个基准点，并上调通胀预期。美联储预计未来几个月经济将放缓，失业率上升，美联储主席鲍威尔淡化了7Monthly interest rate hike75个基点的预期，如果通胀趋于平缓，美联储可能不需要那么激进地加息。为了让通胀回落，美联储宁愿让失业率上升，并冒着经济衰退的风险，大幅加息，预示沃尔克时代又回来了。近日，多份美国媒体民意调查显示，随着通胀持续上升以及对经济衰退的担忧，美国总统拜登的支持率又创新低。最新民调结果显示，有56%的受调民众对拜登的表现不认可，而认可其表现的民众为39%。美联储试图通过迅速收紧利率来给经济降温，黄金市场陷入了一场拉锯战。

Gold's recent interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve has also caused a significant roller coaster shock, and it is the first to explore1825Strong pull up after low position1878Then it rose and fell back to break through1825Starting point to1805Be able to stop the decline. It seems that gold is expected to fall below1800The benchmark continued to decline, but the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike led to a trend of buying expectations and selling facts, and bulls took the opportunity to return1860Near the checkpoint. The recent market rhythm has not been very regular, and the continuity of long and short positions is poor. It is in a period of ups and downs, and then it fell back to the end of the week under pressure1833low point. At present, the daily line is at a low level of volatility, and the Bollinger three tracks are running flat, with no clear direction for bullish and bearish positions. It can only be said to touch1805Welcome to a continuous positive rebound, representing1800There is a large amount of buying support near Daguan, and1850There is also selling pressure above. And what I have been saying recently is that the top of the lunar line has risen and fallen back, and after the inverted hammer line, it has received two consecutive negative points, laying a solid foundation6If there is a bearish trend in the month, then this month's bearish trend will suppress the bullish rebound, which is a trend of rising and falling. The current situation is unclear, so please pay attention to it from above1850Close pressure, follow below1832Nearby support, this position is short-term1805—1813Upward trend line support point, if effectively below1830So the decline will continue further.

　　6.20Golden Strategy:1--1850Near empty, stop loss1855, Objective1842-1836

　　2--1825Nearby, stop loss1819, Objective1832-1836

Latestcrude oilMarket trend analysis

　　昨日先横盘压制凌晨阻力直接下挫，欧盘连跌破位，美盘反弹后二次下行破新低，而低位是处于通道支撑；由于这两日合约的变化，昨日看的是美原油07走势图，对应出来的通道支撑是111.5-111(07contract)，计划这里波段做多；而低点是112.3就开始启动大涨，就会去复盘为什么这里有买点；然后看了美原油主力走势图，才发现，它对应出来的通道支撑是刚好在110.45(08contract)，这存在的点位误差，更多的就是换合约所导致，也属于正常，因此错过了，昨日最低点的波段抄底；然后就看着它，一路涨破日内高点；

　　那么今日来讲，以123.6为高点，112.3为低点，618分割阻力在119.2一线，对于宽幅震荡来讲，618是关键点，要尝试一次短空，这是07合约的报价； 而美原油连主力，已经换过月，是08合约，它的压力并不是618分割，而是50分割，117一线，两者对比下，刚好是同一个位置；因为隔夜一路走强，早盘也是建议回踩382支撑先做多，可惜价格并未给到115.8(07contract382Split Position)，最低是116.3，那么此时只能耐心等119.2阻力短空试探，看能否承压出现一波回踩，然后借助回踩的618分割位置去继续布局多单；周线预计支撑10均线上开始探底拉升，下周仍会上冲，或者展开了宽幅来回整理，类似4month11Solstice5month12日那段时间，不管涨或跌延续性都不错，利润空间很大，把握住相对高低点，则利润几百点概率就很大；

　　建议，原油07合约的，119.2触及短空试探，115上方回测看涨为主；

Author/Guo Sheng Shirt

My Interpretation of World Economic News,Analyzing the Global Investment Trends,Has in-depth research on commodities such as crude oil, gold, silver, etc,Guo Shengshan, Technical Director, provides an online solution,Loss recovery,One on one real-time guidance due to network push latency,The above content is personal suggestion,Due to the timeliness of online publications,For reference only,At one's own risk,Please indicate the source for reprinting.