Guide Metallographer:6.20今日黄金走势分析，多空各有依仗陷入拉锯...

　　goldMessage interpretation:

　　美国财长耶伦表示，经济衰退并非不可避免。消费者支出依然强劲，劳动力市场非常强劲。通货膨胀高得令人无法接受，部分原因是俄乌冲突。通货膨胀的原因是全球性的，而不是地方性的；这些因素不太可能立即消失。通货膨胀速度可能在未来几个月下降。

　　美联储理事沃勒称表示，美联储必须"Significant"调整利率，使之升至中性水平，并进入限制性区间，以压低通胀；但若加息100个基点，则会对市场造成不必要的冲击，就像市场会心脏病发作一样。在6月政策会议不到一周的时间里，当通胀数据逊于预期时，美联储放弃加息0.5个百分点的指导，并进行更大幅度的加息是正确的。此外，沃勒表示，他不想造成经济衰退，他的目标是让经济放缓。

　　美联储卡什卡利表示，支持6Monthly interest rate increase75个基点，可能支持7Monthly interest rate hike again(75Basis points)。认为在2024年我们将能够稍微放松政策。谨慎的策略可能是在7月会议后继续加息50个基点。如果通胀上升，或者供给侧没有改善，可能需要在超过当前预期的基础上继续加息。7月后可能会以50个基点的速度加息，直到物价降温。

　　美联储官员美斯特表示，美国通胀率将从当前水平逐步向下移动，需要两年时间才能降至美联储2%的目标。此外，梅斯特表示，尽管增长放缓，但她并不预测会出现经济衰退。梅斯特称，美国经济增长确实在放缓，失业率也确实略有上升。这是可以接受的，美国希望看到需求可以有所放缓，以使其与供应保持一致。

　　纽约联储DSGE模型最新发布的经济预测显示，美国经济今年将收缩0.6%，2023年将收缩0.5%，2022年和明年的核心通胀率分别为3.8%and2.5%。该模型的前景比3月份悲观得多，因为预计由于货币紧缩政策以及成本上涨冲击，软着路的可能性更低了。

According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate hike25The probability of a basis point is0%Interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is7.9%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is92.1%； reach9Monthly cumulative interest rate increase25、50The probability of each basis point is0%Accumulated interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is5.1%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is62.6%Accumulated interest rate increase150The probability of a basis point is32.2%。

Today's Focus:

　　14:00 Germany5monthPPIMonthly rate

　　21:00 欧洲央行行长拉加德做发言

The next day00:45 美联储布拉德讨论通胀和利率

Technical analysis of gold:

　　日线级别震荡；金价在布林线下轨附近获得支撑后反弹，目前收复了布林线中轨，KDJReestablish a golden fork,MACD死叉信号被破坏，短线偏向进一步试探布林线上轨1878.21附近阻力，也可以参考55Daily moving average1780 .15附近阻力，如果进一步上破，则增加中线看涨信号，进一步阻力参考100Daily moving average1892.03And then1900整数关口附近阻力。短线的话，隔夜高点1857.49and1870附近也还分别存在一些阻力。下方200日均线和布林线中轨支撑在1843附近，周二高点1831.43附近也存在一些支撑，如果失守该位置，则增加短线看空信号。进一步支撑在隔夜低点1815.17附近，布林线下轨支撑目前在1807.83附近。日线图上看，金价处在自1805The upward trend of the US dollar opening(c)Wave, upward resistance looking towards(c)wave76.4%Target bit1868USD.(c)Waves are from1786The upward trend of the US dollar opening((ii))The sub waves of the waves.((ii))Waves are from1998The downward trend of the US dollar openingC浪的子浪。综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议反弹高空为主，回调低多为辅，上方重点关注1848-1853Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1820-1825Frontline support.

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